Guest Article by Bobby Sidhu:
I would like to start off by saying a big thank you to BollyArena for allowing me to post my box office prediction for Dangal, and now for OK JAANU. Also, I would like to thank everyone who read my box office prediction for Dangal. I made a very bold, but correct prediction. Perhaps not everyone was in agreement with what I had predicted before the release of Dangal, but as it turns out, my prediction of 375 crores is looking to be a realistic achievement for the film within the coming days as the film has already crossed the 350 crore mark!
For those that didn't read my prediction for Dangal, here's the link => Repost: Dangal is all set to rewrite Box Office History. I have been writing box office predictions over the last four-and-half years, and you can follow me on Twitter in which I have links to some of my old predictions.
Now, onto my next prediction!
It was in 2013 when Aditya Roy Kapoor and Shraddha Kapoor set the screens on fire and entered the hearts of the audience with their chemistry in the Blockbuster Aashiqui 2. Four years later, they return on-screen with OK Jaanu.
Besides the pairing of ARK-SK pairing, there are other factors that contribute to the curiosity and hype of OK Jaanu. The film is the official remake of the Tamil romantic drama O KADHAL KANMANI (OK KANMANI), which was successful at the box office. Besides that, OK Jaanu has been produced by heavyweight names Karan Johar and Mani Ratnam. Lastly, there is the chartbuster Humma song, which is a remake/remix of the song from Mani Ratnam's 1995 film Bombay.
With so many positive factors in its favor, one would feel that OK JAANU would be a certain success at the box office. Sadly, not all that glitters is gold!
Let's gets to the biggest problem: the director, the captain of the ship, Shaad Ali. He is one of those directors that reached the peak of his career in the beginning of his career itself, only to spiral downwards afterwards. His first two films, SAATHIYA and BUNTY AUR BABLI, performed well at the box office, with the latter emerging the second biggest hit of 2005, just behind a Salman Khan starrer (NO ENTRY). After that, he directed two films (JHOOM BARABAR JHOOM and KILL DIL), both of which performed very poorly at the box office. All four of his previous films were with the Yash Raj banner, and OK JAANU marks his first film outside of the banner....but the result will be the same as his last two films he directed.
OK JAANU comes across as a very urban film, especially with it's modern take on love and relationships (live-in relationships). The film holds no appeal for the single screen/mass audience. Even for the urban audience, there isn't much novelty in the subject of the film because very recently, AE DIL HAI MUSHKIL and BEFIKRE explored a modern take on love and live-in relationships.
Another problem for OK JAANU is that the audience just spent a lot of money recently watching DANGAL, as a result of which they would think twice before spending money for a much smaller film in comparison (OK JAANU). As a matter of fact, almost every year, the first notable release of January tends to not perform well at the box office (WAZIR, TEVAR, MATRU KI BIJLEE KA MANDOLA are some examples in recent years) and part of the reason for that is because the audience has just spent so much money on the big Christmas film and then next would be looking forward to the big Republic Day film. In this case, there are many people amongst the public that would want to now save their money for RAAES/KAABIL instead of spending it on OK JAANU.
OK JAANU will take a decent opening at multiplexes in cities/metros, because of the Aditya Roy Kapoor/Shraddha Kapoor pairing, the chartbuster Humma song, the producers (Karan Johar/Mani Ratnam), and because it's a remake of a successful Tamil film. The opening (and the entire lifetime run) of the film in small centers and single screens will be very poor given the fact that it's an urban film, despite Shraddha having a strong fan following at mass centers. I'm expecting the opening day to be lower than that of AASHIQUI 2 as that film had AASHIQUI brand name, multiple chartbuster songs, and mass appeal.
Below is the opening day collection of other films released in the beginning of January in recent years. The order goes from the lowest date (8th of the month) to the highest date (13th date of the month), in that order, with the year not being taken into consideration for the order.
All of the films in the list above (#1-4) finished with lifetime collections around the 40 crore mark, but I'm expecting OK JAANU to finish with even lower collections than those films. The reason for that is because both of director Shaad Ali's last two films (JHOOM BARABAR JHOOM and KILL DIL) finished with same lifetime collections in the 27-29 crore range, despite there being a difference of seven years in the release date of both films!
My Box Office Predictions for OK JAANU:
The article has been written by Bobby Sidhu from Canada. You can follow him on Twitter https://twitter.com/srkat14