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Which film will be Highest Grosser of 2017?

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First of all, I want to say thank you to everyone that read my box office predictions for Dangal and OK Jaanu. Both predictions turned out to be accurate.

Predicting the biggest grosser/blockbuster of the year is something that comes up every year amongst film fanatics. A fan of Superstar A swears that it will their hero’s film that will become the biggest. A fan of Superstar B will argue in favor of their star. The three common names that cause arguments amongst fans in regards to this are the three Khans: Aamir Khan, Salman Khan, and Shah Rukh Khan. It’s not the stars themselves that create arguments, but rather, it’s their passionate fans!

If we observe the film that became the biggest grosser/blockbuster of the year in India since 2007, you will notice an interesting trend. Let’s take a look, shall we?

2007: Om Shanti Om (Diwali)

2008: Ghajini (Christmas)

2009: 3 Idiots (Christmas)

2010: Dabangg (Eid)

2011: Bodyguard (Eid)

2012: Ek Tha Tiger (Eid)

2013: Dhoom 3 (Christmas)

2014: PK (Christmas)

2015: Bajrangi Bhaijaan (Eid)

2016: Dangal (Christmas)

2017: ?

You notice something? Every year since 2008, the highest grosser of the year has been either an Aamir Khan film released on Christmas, or a Salman Khan film released on Eid. Interestingly, the last time an SRK film, or a Diwali film for that matter, became the highest grosser of the year was back in 2007 with Om Shanti Om! If we look at the last 10 years, it has been either a Salman film or an Aamir film as the biggest grosser of the year for 9 of those years, which equates to an outstanding 90% rate for these two Khans!

Eid and Christmas are the dominant periods. In 2017, it’s either the Salman Eid release, or the Aamir Christmas release, looking at the trend of the past nine years. Aamir has no Christmas release, so here’s what I predict: Salman Khan’s Eid release, Tubelight, will be the biggest grosser, the biggest Blockbuster of 2017!

Sure, people will point to the two films tentatively slated to release during Christmas: Tiger Zinda Hai and the Sanjay Dutt biopic starring Ranbir Kapoor and directed by Rajkumar Hirani. But the fact of the matter is, whenever a film is involved in a clash, it has no chance of becoming the biggest grosser of the year!

Even if we assume one of the Christmas films releases solo (which I think there is a good chance of happening), I would still put my money on Tubelight.  Here’s why:

Tubelight (Eid) vs Tiger Zinda Hai (Christmas): Both films will release on a non-holiday Friday, but Tiger Zinda Hai will take a better opening than Tubelight because it’s a YRF sequel to a huge Blockbuster (Ek Tha Tiger), has Katrina Kaif, and will be presented as a grand action film on a huge scale. However, audience WOM (Word of Mouth) makes the difference. Director Ali Abbas Zafar’s last film Sultan was well-appreciated by the audience, and it can be a similar case for Tiger Zinda Hai, but Ek Tha Tiger itself had WOM that was in the mixed to positive range, so something similar is possible with Tiger Zinda Hai.

On the other hand, Tubelight is directed by Kabir Khan, who’s last film Bajrangi Bhaijaan was one of the most universally loved films in recent years. As a matter of fact, Ali Abbas Zafar’s Sultan had lower lifetime collections than Kabir Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan which released one year earlier, evidence of the fact that Bajrangi Bhaijaan had better WOM than Sultan. Tubelight is likely to have better WOM than Tiger Zinda Hai. Interestingly enough, the director of Tubelight, Kabir Khan, was the director of Ek Tha Tiger, the sequel of which is Tiger Zinda Hai!

Tubelight (Eid) vs Sanjay Dutt Biopic starring Ranbir Kapoor and directed by Rajkumar Hirani (Christmas): Rajkumar Hirani is arguably the biggest director in India, with his last two films 3 Idiots and PK re-writing box office history and opening the 200 crore and 300 crore club, respectively. The last time he worked without Aamir Khan, his Sanjay Dutt starrer Lage Raho Munnabhai was also a Blockbuster that nearly reached the collections of Sunny Deol’s Gadar (which was the highest grossing film at that time). Rajkumar Hirani is expected to deliver another Blockbuster, and if the film were to get a solo Christmas release date, the film would have a good chance of becoming Ranbir Kapoor’s first film to enter the 300 crore club.

Although early reports of the film are that comedy portions are being shot and the film is looking like a Rajkumar Hirani style film, the question remains of whether a film based on the life of Sanjay Dutt (who’s life events has had him gain his share of critics) would be able to connect with the all-india moviegoers. If we compare the WOM of the films of the last two directors, Kabir Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan had slightly better WOM than Rajkumar Hirani’s PK, although the WOM of both films was very strong. If it turns out to be the same case again, then the film with the better WOM and starpower (Tubelight) will reign supreme over the Sanjay Dutt biopic.

For 2015, I predicted that the biggest grosser/blockbuster in India would be Bajrangi Bhaijaan. For 2016, I predicted Dangal. Now for 2017, I predict that it will be the Salman Khan starrer releasing on Eid, Tubelight! Also, a cameo in the film by a certain Khan (Shah Rukh) will only enhance the excitement and box office prospects for Tubelight. As of now, I feel that Tubelight will have lifetime collections somewhere near the 350 crore range, but I will write a more detailed prediction closer to the film’s release.

Bobby Sidhu is a movie buff and box office enthusiast from Canada. You can follow him on Twitter here https://twitter.com/srkat14

If you want to write for us, send your articles on editor@bollyarena.net

35 Comments

  1. Acha Article tha! Even I’m Expecting Tubelight to become the HGOTY!( Or Highest Grosser Of All Time), coz TZH will be in a clash with Sanjay Dutt Biopic which will be directed by the best in the Industry (Rajkumar Hirani). Anything can happen at the Box Office!

  2. salman have 4 films in this list and srk hab only one
    MATLAB srk is struggling from last 10 years to gibe hgoty lol

  3. Roric - the srk hater Reply

    And the highest grosser of 2018 will be crack
    Let the 2018 come ,then crack will brake all records
    And this is faltu article how he can be so sure
    We sud boycott tubelight as it contains Chinese heroine
    And these Chinese has killed thousands of our soldiers in war .
    So better to boycott this movireeee

    • Jab amir ki film ki boycott N kia jis ne india ko intolerance ka khitab dia tha Chinese ne kafi arsa pehle kill kiye ho gy par amir ne ab kaha india intolerance h china ne ab to lesi ko n mara

  4. In 2017 only 3 movies have a chance to become the HGOTY – Tubelight, 2.0 and Baahubali : The Conclusion . As of now Dutt Biopic and TZH will clash on Christmas 2017 . Tubelight brings back the combo of Salman and Kabir for the 3rd time and Eid has always been favourable for Salman . 2.0 is the most expensive movie made in Indian Cinema so it needs to be the HGOAT . Akshay and Rajni Sir will share screen space and it will release on Diwali . It will be visually stunning and released in 3D . Rajni Sir has insane following in South India and Robot has gained a cult status in the last 7 years . Baahubali : The Conclusion is the biggest movie of the year . Baahubali collected 116 CR from Hindi version which is massive as no regional movie has done 30 CR+ in Hindi version . There is massive buzz and the war sequences are expected to be bigger and better than the first one . The suspense is making all of us anxious and excited . Baahubali : The Conclusion can destroy all the records on non holiday . !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. brother u hab predicted
    good hgoty will be tube light
    2nd hgoty tzh than sunjay dutt biopic

    srk has two realese this year but no one is talking about rehnuma

  6. Akki all time disaster king of flop Reply

    Raees blockbuster might be.. and tubelight also.. i m srk fan but support both movie..

  7. Faizurrahman Reply

    My Bet
    1.TubeLight 450 cr ( feeling Bajrangi Bhaijaan level&2 open week)

    2.TZH 350 cr (I’m Sure Solo release& Critics Review Like Sultan)

    3- 2.0 HINDI 210 cr or 250cr possible(sure shot screen count 3500 & Critics Review 4.5*)

    4.Kaabil 150 cr (feeling positive review)

    6.Raees no idea
    but I know winner Kabil

    7.Ring 190 cr

    8. Bahubali 2 150 cr

    9.Jagga jasoos 65 cr – Flop

    10. Dutt 60 cr (solo)
    I’m sure Critics Review negative After release movie
    .
    Before Dangal
    Every one saying..
    Amir
    without Hirani nothing
    without Dhoom Brand nothing
    but
    after Dangal
    everyone known
    Hirani without Amir
    .
    yes
    Munna Bha.. and Lage raho… Blockbuster

    forget

    Gadar Ek Prem Katha
    Dir Anil Sharma
    and second movie
    The Hero: Love Story of a Spy

    .
    .
    Dutt Biopic same Equation like Besharam
    Dir Abhinav Kashyap
    before Besharam everyone predict 200 cr
    because Dabangg Abhinav Kashyap
    first movie and Besharam second

  8. Tubelight will be not only HGOTY but also ATG with 385-400cr…ATBB with Masterpiece coming on Eid 2017

  9. Disaster khans Reply

    Top 5 Biggest Blockbusters of 2017 (All Time Industry Hits)
    1. Robo 2 – 500 cr worldwide – 1000 cr
    2. Baahubali 2 – 450 cr worldwide – 900 cr
    3. Crack – 420 cr worldwide – 900 cr
    4. Jolly LLB 2 – 400 worldwide – 850 cr
    5. Toilet : ek prem katha – 350 cr worldwide – 800 cr

    • I agree with u on Robo2 and Bahubali 2 will be No.1 and 2 Indian movie Grosses in 2017 :)

      Btw Akki movies range is 150 Cr only.

  10. Disaster khans Reply

    Top 5 Biggest Disasters of 2017
    1. The Ring – 25 cr worldwide – 35 cr
    2. Tiger Zinda Hai – 30 cr worldwide – 40 cr
    3. Raees – 20 cr worldwide – 30 cr
    4. Tubelight – 35 cr worldwide – 50 cr
    5. Secret superstar -15 cr worldwide – 25 cr

  11. Inam ul Haq Reply

    Which is the highest grossing indian movie of all time in domestic box office and what is its domestic(nett.) collection?? Can anyone reply..

    • Bobby Sidhu Reply

      For Hindi films, without adjusting for inflation, it’s Dangal which is still running at the box office and will finish its run around the 380 crore net mark.

  12. Salman king Reply

    Tublight 330+highest grosser of the year
    And second Tigher zinda hai 320+ but dutt biopic not clash with Tiger zinda hai ……. to phir Tzh highest grosser of the year.

    👑king of bollywood and box office
    Only Salman bhai.

  13. HGOTY koi bhi ho par ATHG koi nahi hoga…
    Hahahhahahaaha
    Only Aamir rules..no sallu no srk..
    Hahahahhahahahah
    Kuch bhi predict karlo aur apna man behlao par tum se ba ho payega sallu fans..ATHG dena bacchoke bas ki bat nahi.Its challenge Tublight will not break Dangal chae jitna jor lagana hein
    Lagalo.aaj se primotion chalu kardo..
    Aamir ka record todna mushkil hi nahi namumkin hein sallu ke liye..
    3 din ke honeymoon period ke bad kuttttta bhi nahi dekhne janewala.
    Hahahahhaaahahhahaha

    • Abe bhai abhi se jalne lagi teri….Abhi toh Dangal ki thukai honi baki h…burnol kharidna shuru krde tubelight k time nhi milega….Aur mann tu bahla rha h khud ka…Dangal toh gaya beta bhaad me…its my challnge Tubelight will brutally fucked dangal

    • Hahaha beta aamir ki movies ka 60% collection salmaniacs aur srkains ki wajah se hota h aur kuch neutral audience ki wajah se warna koi aukat nhi h uss tingu ki..aur eid tak wait krle beta phir milna…Dangal will brutally f*cked by Tubelight

      • Lallu ki aukat pata chal gayi lultan se. kuch lallu ke fan bet hare hein muzse..
        Hahaha..
        Lultan ka band aisa bajaya he tum log zindagi bhar yaad rakhoge.
        13 din mein lultan ka band..
        Hahahaha
        Megastar ka uper niche right left sab jagah se band bajaya Aamir ne……aise bol raha he jaise Aamir ne bola tha lallu aur srk ke fans ko dekhne ke liye…
        Hahahaha

  14. It’s a close one but if dutt biopic gets shifted then for sure tzh if not tubelight. But I think tubelight will get 250-290cr even tzh will get 220cr with clash without clash 270-295cr I’m doing these predictions taking in mixed wom. Srk’s rehnuma 120cr-150cr coz it’s imtiaz Ali style which is not universal. Secret superstar 100cr coz of brand aamir look at his productions 100% sucess record. That’s my predictions the rest of movies will be hard to predict.

  15. Akki all time disaster king of flop Reply

    Akki all movie disaster.. boring concept he is king of flop

  16. Faizurrahman Reply

    #Parshya
    bro apna man to tum bahla rahe ho
    yeh to tumko bhi pata hoga
    Tubelight Review Like Dangal
    not only Dangal Record Broken
    Amir Khan career biggest hit Raja Hindustani footfall record Broken
    .
    and
    if TZH solo release
    Review Like Dangal
    and 3 open week
    everyone known TZH 2 week= Dangal life time
    .
    .
    if upcoming Raees review like Dangal
    very good chance 250 cr club enter with clash
    .
    Salman ke paas star power hai
    SRK ke star power hai
    AMIR ke paas content and open week hai

    • But to get wom like dangal you have to be dedicated to film making,
      Like aamir khan is salman and Srk are not dedicated enough.

    • Lallu aur srk fans ki jarurat nahi, hum Aamir ke fan and neutral audience kafi he tumhare lallu ka band bajane ke liye
      Hahahahaha

      • Beta pahli baar sun rha hu ki tingu k fans h…hahaha waiter k bhi bhala fans kaise ho skte h…maximum 200-300 fans dikhteh twitter aur fb milake…ek trend toh kr nhi paate tum log twitter pr aur bolte ho ki tingu k fans h..hahaha chutiya parshya

  17. Dagal tax free no releade film 3 week is liye bussiness kia h aur story good thi agar tubelight ki story bb ki tarah hui to dangal ka record toot jaye ga aur dangal ki tarah 3week tak koi film release na hui to phir to 400 hoga taqteban warna 340 crore se 350 c ho ga

  18. I bet no movie in coming 6-7 years will be able to break Dangal ‘s domestic record.
    Now, this figure will remain a dream for all.

  19. Well said boy Sidbu. Thanks for the lovely article. Tubelike will collect more than 250 cores plus. TZH will also do more than 285 if get clash with sanjay duty biopic.
    Tubelight will also get an award for salmon khan for sure.

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