After all of the controversies. After all of the questions…..
“Why is there no official announcement of the release date?”
“When will it release?”
“In which areas will it be banned?”
“Is the film even going to release?”
Finally, it’s arriving. I use the word “it” because this is no longer a film. It has become a national event!
I’m not going to get into the details of any of the controversies. After all, the likes of Arnab Goswani, and a million other news anchors/channels have already been in your face covering the whole story. I will only do what I do: cover the box office aspect of the film!
To say that Padmaavat is carrying enormous pre-release hype would be an understatement. The film has gained so much publicity across India due to all of the controversies surrounding the film. The film has managed to reach even beyond the casual moviegoer.
All of that hype will surely translate into an excellent opening, sure. Speaking of the opening, I have been reading some analysts (and others as well) predicting an opening day collection in the 35 crore range, some even predicting 40! However, I feel that one needs to remember some important factors here. The biggest factor is that the film is releasing on a non-holiday (the 25th). The highest non-holiday, Hindi film opener (not including Baahubali 2) is Tiger Zinda Hai, a big franchise, Salman/Katrina YRF action starrer. To expect a film with Shahid/Ranveer as the main leads to open at a similar level would perhaps be expecting too much. With that said, there is no doubt that the film will take an excellent opening, nonetheless!
Hype/opening is one thing, but what really matters is content. Content is what determines the direction of the lifetime collections. Normally, I don’t like to read any sort of critic review before writing my prediction, as I don’t want that review to have any sort of influence on how I feel the film will perform at the box office. As it turns out, I accidentally stumbled upon a tweet by a certain popular trade analyst, who hailed the film as a “masterpiece,” which makes me believe even more that the public Word-of-Mouth will be very strong. As it is, the trailer of the film received a phenomenal response by viewers! Also, the last film from the combo of Ranveer-Deepika-SLB, Bajirao Mastani, received a terrific response from the audience. Therefore, I’m sure that this film will also be loved by the public. Ranveer Singh in particular will get amazing feedback for his performance from the public, is what I feel.
The film only has a two-week free run as Padman and Aiyaary release on Feb 9. Also, the costs of the film are on the higher side. Given the expected excellent opening and appreciation for the film, however, two weeks should be enough to get the job done at the box office!
My Box Office Predictions for Padmaavat (Hindi version only):
Opening Day (January 25th, NOT including paid previews of 24th): 24 crore nett
Opening Weekend (Thurs-Sun, including paid previews of 24th): 130 crore nett
Lifetime: 230 crore nett
Overall Verdict: Hit
As always, you can follow me on Twitter at Bobby Sidhu!