My Box Office Predictions for Tubelight

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Salman Khan. Kabir Khan. Eid. Really, can it get bigger?

In Eid 2012, the superstar came together with the director to deliver a monumental Blockbuster, Ek Tha Tiger. The film itself received mixed feedback from viewers, but they
shocked viewers three years later. I remember before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan, I predicted the film would be a Blockbuster, but I felt that it would be a routine masala fare. Imagine my shock (along with others), when the early critic and audience reviews started pouring in, that the film is a masterpiece. A classic. IMDB rating of 8.1/10, the current rating that stands! The more the audience cried, the more the makers laughed their way to the bank, and it became the first film of Salman Khan to enter the 300 crore club.

Two years later, the duo reunites with Tubelight. Will Tubelight light up the box office and the hearts of viewers? …..Not quite!

Sometimes, reality becomes something else altogether. The unexpected. Let’s analyze this a little more deeply. The teaser was released first from Tubelight and received a mixed response. Then, the theatrical trailer released, which generally received a positive response, but one can’t help but feel something was missing!

Let’s get down to the root of the first, major problem: Little Boy. Little Boy failed at the box office and received negative reviews from critics. The question then is, why did Kabir Khan decide to base his film on a flop Hollywood film? In the past, Hollywood films that failed at the box office were made into Bollywood remakes with similar results: Knight and Day (Flop) to Bang Bang (Semi-Hit because of star power and holidays), and Warrior (Flop) to Brothers (Flop) are examples. The makers claim that only the basic idea has been taken from Little Boy, but with the teaser of Tubelight ending with Salman posing the same way the child Jakob Salvati poses in Little Boy, it’s hard to say how much they really have borrowed from Little Boy!

The second problem, Salman Khan. Kabir Khan has called this Salman’s career-best performance, but opinions on his performance through the promos have been extremely mixed. In Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Salman was portrayed as a man with a heart of gold, who is willing to get aggressive when the need calls for it. In Tubelight, his character seems too similar, but instead of that added aggression trait (which always works so well with the single screen audience), it has been replaced by a trait where it seems Salman has a mental disability in the film. This could go against the film, as Salman’s biggest fans (smaller centres/mass-dominated areas) want to see Salman’s aggressive, action image on display, rather than a mental disability. Also, Salman is looking aged and overweight in the promos. It’ll be interesting to see how Salman’s acting gets received by viewers, but I feel the general feedback will be mixed, which is a step down after he delivered what many felt were two of his career-best performances in Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan.

The next problem, Kabir Khan, the writer. Kabir Khan has written the story of three films: Kabul Express, Phantom (co-writer), and now Tubelight. Both Kabul Express and Phantom failed at the box office, which is not a good sign for Tubelight. One must not forget after all, that the writer of Bajrangi Bhaijaan was someone else: K. V. Vijayendra Prasad, the story writer of Baahubali and Baahubali 2.

Another problem: Salman Khan and Sohail Khan. It seems almost every time they have come together in the past, things have not gone well. With the exception of Maine Pyaar Kyun Kiya? other films like Hello (Salman had a promotional song), Heroes, God Tussi Great Ho, Salaam-e-Ishq, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna, and Veer all failed at the box office. Even when Sohail was a director, three of their four films (Auzaar, Hello Brother, and Jai Ho) did not perform well at the box office, the exception being Pyaar Kiya Toh Darna Kya. Their brotherly combination has been cursed in the past, and the curse could continue with Tubelight as well.

In Bajrangi Bhaijaan, the child in the film (Harshaali Malhotra) was a Pakistani, which made it a lot easier for the public of India to connect with. The child was being played by an Indian as well. In Tubelight, however, the presence of a Chinese actress (Zhu Zhu) and a Northeastern kid Martin Rey Tangu will not be easily identifiable with the Hindi audience, especially those in smaller centres/single screens.

SRK’s presence and his scene with Salman will tear the house down with whistles and claps, no doubt, especially since they are sharing screen space after 10 years (Om Shanti Om in 2007). However, sometimes too much of a good thing can be a bad thing. It appears a lot has been packed into this film, which makes me feel even more that somewhere along the way, something must’ve gone wrong during the making of this film.

Now, from reading all of this, it seems as if I have only written about how bad the film will be. The film won’t be that bad. It may not be bad at all. Kabir Khan has shown his capabilities as a director, the film has an Indianness feeling to it (similar to how Bajrangi Bhaijaan had), the Radio song is a hit, and the war scenes and Salman/Sohail scenes will work with the audience. Overall, I think the film will receive mixed public WOM (Word-of-Mouth). Little Boy, a box office flop, has an IMDB rating of 7.4/10, and I feel the WOM amongst the urban audience for Tubelight will be a step below (WOM for Bollywood films inspired by Hollywood always tends to be lower than the original), suggesting decent WOM. WOM at single screens/mass centres will be mixed, as that audience would like the Salman/Sohail, Radio song, and war scenes, but not really be impressed by the other elements in the film, especially Chinese characters and Salman’s lack of a macho/heroic image in the film.

My Box Office Predictions for Tubelight

Now, to break down the collections. 100 crore nett is a given because it’s Salman Khan’s film. Another 100 crore nett is a given because it’s Salman Khan’s film releasing during Eid. 200 crore is given. After that, is the question mark. Bajrangi Bhaijaan, widely considered an excellent film, collected another 115 crores after it reached the 200 crore mark, for a total collection of 315 crore nett. Sultan, another well-appreciated film but not at the same level as Bajrangi Bhaijaan, added another 100 crore after the 200 crore mark to reach a total of 300 crore nett. Given that I feel Tubelight will have mixed WOM (lower WOM than Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan), I feel that the film will add approximately 50 crore after the 200 crore mark, for a total of 250 crore nett, which is the point where the film will just recover costs. The lifetime collection (250 crore nett) will be the middle number right in between Kabir/Salman’s previous two films, Ek Tha Tiger and Bajrangi Bhaijaan. However, that is a high enough collection for the trade to label the film as a “Hit.”

Tubelight will have a non-holiday opening. It feels like both Dangal and Tubelight had similar pre-release buzz, with both lacking some commercial ingredients and a popular heroine. However, Dangal got the benefit of amazing reviews for its advance booking. PK and Bajrangi Bhaijaan had similar buzz levels, with the ladder edging out with a higher opening day. I feel Tubelight will have a similar opening day collection to Dangal but will fall way short of Dangal in terms of lifetime collections.

My Box Office Predictions for Tubelight:

  • Opening Day: 29 crore nett
  • Opening 4-Day Weekend (Fri-Mon, Eid is on Monday): 120 crore nett
  • Lifetime Collection: 250 crore nett
  • Overall Box Office Verdict: Hit

Also, you can read my previous predictions of DangalRaeesRangoon and Raabta. As always, you can follow me on Twitter at Bobby Sidhu.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the writer do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of Bollywood Arena. If you also want to write for us, send your articles on editor@bollyarena.net. 




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58 COMMENTS

      • tubelight ka Chalna mushkil sa lag raha hain — sach main —
        buzz kafi low hain — film good hoye to 250 cross kar sakte hain – otherwise 200 mushkil

    • The author of his page don’t seem to be making sense to me, firstly the movie is looking great and Salman Khan is showing immense amount of talent and acting skills on screen.

      Maybe a small shot or scene from little boy does not mean the whole movie is copied.

      Salman Khan star power is too huge and that added with Eid can never stop at 250cr I would’ve maybe agreed with you if you said that it would stop just over 300cr

      Blockbuster promos, blockbuster songs, Kabir Khan and Salman Khan have never gone wrong, it’s always been a blockbuster for them, Shah Rukh Khan cameo, the movie has too much talent and show on its hands for it to only be declared a hit!

      And Sohail Khan being in the movie will only boost the collection in this because the audience would be able to connect with the brotherly love easily as they are real brothers!

      345cr domestic +
      200cr overseas +
      Worldwide 650 -700cr

  1. @Bobby Sidhu
    Nice analysis….

    My prediction
    Fusslight-280cr (considering 20cr manipulation)

    verdict-Hit

    arey re re kay hal hai local star ka…
    kaha Aamir the Global Megastar aur kaha sallu the chota local star.

  2. Superb Article…..
    sallu fans rona mat article padke…

    kya pata fusslight 300cr cross bhi kar le par Dangal break karna Local star ke bass ki baat nahi..

  3. 1st time I agree with him
    I also predict the same no.
    Opening-28.5cr
    Weekend-120cr
    1st week-175cr
    2nd week-225cr
    Lifetime-260cr(max)…..
    If won is mix
    And it literally shown as
    Teaser,trailer average
    All songs are shit
    Except main agar
    Let’s see tomorrow
    What’s happen…
    And welcome all Sallu fans to come back again..😂😂

    • Tiwari Bhai saheb
      If you agreed with him for the first time time you must be wrong most of the time as Bobby is mostly right with his prediction. Anyway der aye durust aye…

  4. Bwahahahaha!!!!
    250Cr?
    So It Wont Cross DHOOM 3 which had
    Mixed to Negative WOM.
    That too With Heavy Promotions, Interviews & SRK.
    (Dangal was Released During Demonetisation too)
    So It is Proved
    ‘Aamir Khan is Baap of Box Office’

      • Tu bhaag be haklutards. If tushar kappor could have given that success to Dhoom3 despite being a average movie, than what the hell YRF had not taken your haklu in dhoom 3, They know the aukat of srk whose own Don 2 had collected less than Ghajini domestic collection on Christmas. Srk to fokat me b kaam kar leta, Aamir demands highest profit sharing even more than Salman. And mind you ur haklu is competing with likes of Varun right now.

      • Sayar 5 ft 7 inch waale over actor hakle ko hum kya kahe? Lambu? LOL. Your tingu srgay is not able to cross 150 cr without deepika mom and rohit papa and you are blabbering against biggest ATHG giving megastar aamir khan? Aamir is baap of your tingu in stardom. Shahrukh to bechara tingu to hai hi lekin usko ek aur tag mil gaya “Hakla”. LOL. 2 kodi ke log apni aukaat me raho.aamir ke baare me bhonkne se pehle 10 baar sochna.

        • apne actor bht unchi jgh pr h too aise hi baat aati h na madam,par samjho real fans apna star jaise hi behave krte h as a aamir fan not suit for u n pehle too aamir fan ne hi shuru kiya ki dhoom 3 se bhi kam hoga ye sab jrurt kya h jan apna hero top h too ,aur ye bhi socho jab aapke star niche tha tb whi haklu star top tha jb uska nhi h too uska talent niche mt kijiyega ,i respect aaamir talent too ,thank u

          • @chandra prasad

            kitna aage tha SRK 2000 me

            1-2 crore😂😂😂😂 or 4-5 crore overseas me😂😂😂

            bhai SRK tbhi aage tha….jb aamir Mangal pandey bnane bizi tha….yhi vh time h jb vh top pr tha…..

            Ammir to ab 1500 crore aage h SRK se😂

            • 2000 me 1 2 crore nhi blki almost 20 se jada h hit movies srk ka ,veer zara-42 mohabbatein 30 2000s ka 45-50 crore aajkl ka 300 crore ki par h bhai ye money values roj bdhta rehta h ye common chiz ko bhi tm smjh nhi skte too as a aamir fan u looking anpadh sallu fan

        • Don’t talk about height you moron Shah Rukh Khan is taller than your 3ft Aamir Khan!

          Amir Khan is a stupid and disgusting actor always trying his stupid stuff, soon his box office run will be over too! Lmao

          Only Salman Khan and Shah Rukh Khan kings of Bollywood and stardom!

          • abe gochu @king of pluto

            bhai , 3 feet kitne hote h , malum h 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

            kya shahrukh 8.7 inch ka h😂😂😂…etna to world ka sbse lamba ensan b nhi h😂

            bhai shahrukh ki height 5.7 inch h ,or salman or aamir me sirf 1/2 inch ka diffrence h😂😂😂

            Tino khan Tingu h😂😂😂

      • @Fake Sayar
        D3 brand ka Aamir ne ek hi sal me band baja diya…
        aur D3 ko Aamir ne hi ATBB/ATHG banaya tha.

        aaj ke din kardo D4 release dekhte hai without Aamir wo Dangal cross karti hai kya

  5. hmmm… the article seems decent.. wont argue..
    since salman isnt playing a macho role.. all will boil down to content after a week..
    Wait and watch for my honest review.. i am going with my family for the matinee!!!!
    Haters.. tum log comments karte raho and continue to boast about china maal :D

  6. Hey Canadian Bobby Siddhu
    Do u have any shame left after BKD and Half Gf?
    250cr? It will do this much in DAYS
    Better worry about your fav SRK. His JHMS looks like an all time disaster, replacing YLJK

    • Yes, I do have shame left, because as usual you will only point out my few wrong predictions and dismiss my many correct predictions. Read my Dangal prediction.

      I am unbiased even when it comes to SRK, read my Raees prediction.

  7. my predictions:
    for the first 4 days, due to Salman’s stardom and Festive season, movie will surely cross 120 crore mark. rest will depend on WOM.
    poor WOM (inevitable coz i have watched ‘Little Boy’ which is an excellent emotional film with a great concept): 180-200 crore
    average WOM: 250-270 crore
    positive WOM: 300-320 crore
    execellent WOM: 350 crore+

  8. parya bhai from mum virar…. inko rona ayega to bhi nahi royenge…. unko fusslight ka cllection badhana hai….. sallu rikswalene sab ko 1 lk diye he jyst pramotion….
    bhai sallu fan… jitna hasana rona karlo…. pk bhul javo….. aur dangal to yaad hi mat rakhiyo……
    aur gali deni hai to call n masdg me… u m b….. samje…. ya call karo samhata ta hu….he30547443….
    samjo aur karo call saluu… lullu fuss light….

  9. only hit at 250 crores?then how on earth was dhoom 3 all time blockbuster and Ra1 hit?if distributers are paying much then thats is there probleme.i believe verdict of every movie should be declared according to its budget

  10. HAI 1ST DAY 30 CR PLUS AND LIFE TIME 330CR
    THE ARTICLE MISSES SALMAN SRK COMBINATION
    TJE SCREENING OF THE MOVIE IS DONE AND GET PHENOMINAL RESPONSE AS BHAJRANGI ONL THE NAME IS ENOUGH THAT IS SALMAN KHAN AKA TUBELIGHT

  11. wait a moment at the time of dangal sallu fans said dangal have advantage of winter holiday to school and colleges. NOW 23rd to 30th june there are summer holidays that means it will earn huge in 8 DAYS DUE TO HOLIDAYS as per LALLU FAN LOGIC. People enjoy summer holidays more than winter holidays.

  12. Tubelight looks like Bajrangi Bhaijaan part 2. But this time they dont have legendary writer K. V. Vijayendra Prasad (Bahubali fame). So they have copied a Hollywood film which shows that Kabir Khan has not guts to make an original film on his own. Otherwise the result will be like Phantom.

  13. After week one sultan did nearly 90 crores where as Bajrangi did 135 cr approximately.i think tubelight if 4+ star movie than will collect nearly 280-310 crore,if wom is mix(2.5 to 3.5 star) than 200-250 crore & negative wom (Less than 2.5 star) than upto 175 crore but 4 days opening should be atleast 120 crores.
    All the best to Salman,hope so he once again give career best performance after Bajrangi & sultan

  14. Gaddar hain o log jo tubelight dekhne ki baat karte hain agar desh bhakt ho to tubelight ka bycoat karo flop kra do isse jaise dilwale ka virodh kiya tha waise hi tubelight ka karo jaggo deshbhakton jaggo

    • Bhai kumar agar tum desh bhakt ho article hi mat para karo khans ka. Ghar main aram se desh baghkti karo.ahahha

    • Gaddar wo hai jo mukesh kumar jaisi soch rakhte hai unhe india ka hum keh hi nahi sakte itni chotti soch.movie nahi dekhni hai mat dekh dusro ko bhi mana kar koi problem nahi hai but ye deshdrohi wala words kuch jyada bada ho gaya parshya har baar oppose karta hai har ek movie ka but kabhi bhi wo aise words nahi use karta.khud to ek bhi rules follow nahi karta aur dusro ko deshdrohi bolta hai.aaaah thuuuuuuu

    • pls change ur name.. its degrading me for some reason.. i knw its not ur original name.. i cant use profanity, or else i wud have killed u using few what i know…

  15. The problem with predictions now for salman films is salman has moved away from a macho salman film to a character driven salman film but the critics n predictors r still living in that pre bajrangi era ! What most fail to understand now that totally character driven films r doing the best lifetime business now even thgh openings r not staggering! This film tubelight is exactly on bajrangi levels in terms of buzz! But the audience’s increasing acceptance of story based character driven films since bajrangi has tubelight in atleast a position to collect as much as bajrangi n if the film is as good as bajrangi it shd collect more!

  16. The writer of this article seems to have some problem with Salman Khan….He has picked up and pointed out whatever negatives he could glean regarding the movie ‘Tubelight’….But he is unmindful of the fact that it is a Salman Khan movie which is a phenomenon in itself….His name alone is a guarantee enough to bring the audience to the theaters….And as far as ‘Tubelight’ is concerned, the movie looks very promising….The makers have kept everything in wraps as they have not revealed enough….There is a mystery surrounding the movie….But both Kabir Khan and Salman Khan look very confident about their project ‘Tubelight’…..This means there is something special and wonderful in store for us and believe me this will be one hell of a movie….Kabir Khan himself said that this movie is more than just an emotional bond between the two brothers….Nothing has been revealed about the Chinese actress and the role of the little boy but both seems to be an integral part of the plot of the movie….We are still not sure the role played by SRK as a magician and how prolonged it will be….I think the movie will be an amazing one as both Salman and Kabir have matured and they will not be satisfied with a commonplace project….Anyhow we are just two days short of seeing a stormon the box offcie and those who are speaking ill of the movie will be heard no more….

    • Abe o sare desh ke gaddar salman fan tumhe samjha rha hoon tubelight ka bycoat karo lekin tumlog samajh nahi rahe ho lagta hai hall ke ander aaker potayi karne se hi tumlog sudhroge gaddaro samajh jao teri maa behen ki ksam jiss film main pak star ho chahe actor ho ya si.ger uss film ka bycoat kroge.jai hind

  17. Tubelight will do more than 300+ at box office Salman Hai na bas kafi hai baaki fans sambhal lengay
    Go manipulate Dangal figures and claim it Biggest grosser even though Baahubali 2 squashed it clinically

  18. Sunny Deol has made a big mistake…. He should release his movie Bhaiyaji…Superhit Since the Director has concluded that this movie has made well…. the content of this movie is strong and we are waiting for the trailer too…. Because of friendship Sunny has shifted the movie….

  19. prediction sahi h lekin agar regional films koi accha nhi h too ye movie 300 se jada hogi here south we exciting more with dj n vanamagan lets see if tubelight wom is gud then it is another bhajrangu bhaijan for sallu

  20. My prediction for tubelight……
    1st weekend: 130crs…
    1st week:210crs..
    2nd weekend: 40cr..
    2week:70crs..
    Total box office collection: 335crs…

  21. Hi!

    Bolly arena Tem,

    Hope all are you doing well!

    As I could see that you mention in your above article Mattin Rey Tangu is Chinese child actor. Common! Bolly arena you are subject experts still you didn’t know that Mattin Rey Tangu from Itanagar(Arunachal Pradesh)… please understand North East and kashim are our part..

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