My Box Office Predictions for Half Girlfriend

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It’s been two months since I last wrote a prediction for a film. The last one being, Badrinath Ki Dulhania. I only write predictions for Hindi films, and as it is, most of the films released in the last two months were easy to predict by anyone…..there were flops galore!

Following the monumental success of Baahubali 2, there is immense pressure on Bollywood to deliver. Will Half Girlfriend be the film to provide much-needed cheer to an industry that just can’t seem to get it right anymore in terms of quality?

Mixed response to the theatrical trailer aside, Half Girlfriend has generated hype for quite a few reasons…

Chetan Bhagat’s novels seem to strike a chord with the urban youth in India, hence why even the film versions of his novels have been very successful at the box office (3 Idiots and 2 States come to mind).

The music of Half Girlfriend has emerged a huge success. In particular, Baarish and Phir Bhi Tumko Chaahunga have been topping charts.

The super-successful director-actress pair of Mohit Suri and Shraddha Kapoor are returning after a hiatus, following their two Super Hit films together Aashiqui 2 and Ek Villain. This also marks Arjun Kapoor’s next film after the Hit film released last year, Ki and Ka.

2011 onwards, every post-IPL release has gone on to enter the 100 crore club: Ready, Rowdy Rathore, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani, Holiday, Tanu Weds Manu Returns, and Housefull 3. Given the trend, I feel that Half Girlfriend will also enter this club.

On the strength of chartbuster songs, Chetan Bhagat’s popularity with the urban youth, and Shraddha Kapoor in a big commercial film after Baaghi (her big commercial films always tend to get a huge opening), I expect Half Girlfriend to get a double-digit opening. I feel the opening will be a little higher than another Mid-May post-IPL release, Tanu Weds Manu Returns, given that both leads of HG are more popular than those leads. Interestingly, that film also actually released towards the end of IPL season, while the season was going on but about to end, similar as to how it is with HG. However, I do feel that the audience WOM (Word of Mouth) of HG will be mixed: the novel of which the film is based on was not received well by critics, director Mohit Suri’s last film Hamari Adhuri Kahani failed at the box office (even the Super Hit Ek Villain before that carried mixed WOM), and Arjun Kapoor has been receiving some criticism in the promos for not looking the part of his character and/or being unable to portray the role. However, as was even seen with Mohit Suri’s last flop Hamari Adhuri Kahani, I feel that the WOM may be better in the small/mass centres.

My Box Office Predictions for Half Girlfriend:

Opening Day: 10.50 crore net

Opening Weekend: 35+ crore net

Lifetime Collections: 101 crore net

Overall Box Office Verdict:Hit

 

Overall, the film will emerge a box office success. However, for the post-IPL period, things are not going well. Back in 2013, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani nearly got to the 200 crore mark, but ever since then, most of the films released in this period have hardly gone above the 100 crore mark (Tanu Weds Manu Returns was an exception, which got to the 150 crore mark). Half Girlfriend will be a box office success, but will it really be successful given the potential of collections during the post-IPL period? …. Not quite!




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21 COMMENTS

  1. I think it will get Avg / Abv avg response and I am expecting a Total around 50-85cr

    Also in my opinion The Trailer was avg and except the 2/3 songs all others were bad songs …even the good songs are not chartbusters …

  2. I feel you are overestimating Half Girlfriend . The current trend of ROM COMS has made things really difficult . People were disappointed with ADHM, Befikre and OK Jaanu in the last few months . The trailer of HG has received a mixed response . The songs have not been brilliant except Baarish to some extent . Most of the people have said HG is the worst book of Chetan Bhagat till date . Bahubali 2 will give tough competition even though it will be running in the 4th week . So after looking at everything I feel Half Girlfriend will fail at the Box office . But anything can happen when it comes to box office . It might get a double digit opening but may crash in weekdays which will make things difficult . !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. shraddha kapoor says to arjun kapoor in this film” i am not your girlfriend but i can be your half girlfriend”

    i will like to say to srk in shraddha kapoor style” you are not a superstar but i can say you are a half superstar”

    • Atleast he is a half superstar, Aamir Khan is just an actor hahahahahaha
      Bollywood has only 2 superstars today Salman Khan and Shah Rukh Khan
      They stand for fame and popularity
      @honestman your calling Shah Rukh Khan a half superstar is still good because I don’t consider Aamir Khan even a quarter superstar!
      Aamir Khans stardom is as big as his height hahahahaha!
      And in that case Aamir Khan should have done Anand L Rais next, aare VFX ka cost bach chaatha, because Aamir Khan already looks like a dwarf lmao!

  4. I think prediction for half girlfriend by you looks higher. I think it will open around as you predict but lifetime collection will be on lower side. My prediction:

    1st day = 10.02 cr
    2nd day = 10.78 cr
    3rd day = 12.5 cr
    1st weekend = 33.3 cr
    1st week = 50.5 cr
    2nd week = 14.5 cr
    3rd week = 2.5 cr
    4th week = 0.5 cr
    Total net collection = 68 cr
    Expected budget = 65 cr
    Expected WOM = Mixed
    Verdict = Average

  5. I think

    1 day 11+ cr
    2 day 12+ CR
    3 day 15+ CR weekend 38-40 CR
    (Shraddha- Mohit combo)

    Week 65-70 CR

    Lifetime 102-110 CR

    Like Ek villain

    For Bollywood After badri 2ed Superhit Movie……

    (Bahubali is dubbed movie)

  6. @ 3: 04 pm, still that half superstar ruled 2 decades.According to BOI , SRK was the top actor among khans .although overall Sunny deol was the top actor.And according to indicine , SRK ruled the previous decade 2000- 09.and current decade is ruling by Aamir khan.
    Where is the so called megastar Salman khan ?

  7. All Chetan Bhagat books inspired movies have been successful-3 idiots, 2states, Kai Poche

    But one has flopped-Hello

    Reason is simple :

    Quarter super cum chota star Salman Khan and his panauti

  8. i think according to my prediction-
    1st day-13.5crore
    2nd day-13crore
    3rd day-15 corre
    weekend-41crore
    first week-62 crore
    life time-100 crore

  9. @prashant abhishek let’s make it very simple for you. among the major boxoffice achievements salman khan has a poor record in terms of all time grossers and not so good record in terms of all time blockbusters but even in those two things srk is not ahead of him. let’s not talk about blockbusters, hgoty, solo record openers, 2crore, 3 crore and 4crore plus footfall films, highest grosser of the decade( where salman has a great record) unless srk ki pant utar jayegi.

    @sayar a regional star’s film’s hindi version is going to be a bigger hit than any film of srk released till date( as baahubali 2’s hindi version is set to cross the footfalls of ddlj)but you are still alive despite of this humiliation.

    • Same regional star all India footfalls will also be more than HAHK. Also as far as Hindi is concerned it will be more than all Sallu films except Madhuri Dixit’s HAHK(whose ffs are controversial). And that regional star has also beaten the current standing of Salman black and blue.

  10. @honest man
    BB2 is an Indian film but not a bollywood film . Dubbed version wont make it Bollywood.
    To be Bollywood it needs to be “Mumbai-Based” not “Hindi” only

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