It’s been two months since I last wrote a prediction for a film. The last one being, Badrinath Ki Dulhania. I only write predictions for Hindi films, and as it is, most of the films released in the last two months were easy to predict by anyone…..there were flops galore!
Following the monumental success of Baahubali 2, there is immense pressure on Bollywood to deliver. Will Half Girlfriend be the film to provide much-needed cheer to an industry that just can’t seem to get it right anymore in terms of quality?
Mixed response to the theatrical trailer aside, Half Girlfriend has generated hype for quite a few reasons…
Chetan Bhagat’s novels seem to strike a chord with the urban youth in India, hence why even the film versions of his novels have been very successful at the box office (3 Idiots and 2 States come to mind).
The music of Half Girlfriend has emerged a huge success. In particular, Baarish and Phir Bhi Tumko Chaahunga have been topping charts.
The super-successful director-actress pair of Mohit Suri and Shraddha Kapoor are returning after a hiatus, following their two Super Hit films together Aashiqui 2 and Ek Villain. This also marks Arjun Kapoor’s next film after the Hit film released last year, Ki and Ka.
2011 onwards, every post-IPL release has gone on to enter the 100 crore club: Ready, Rowdy Rathore, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani, Holiday, Tanu Weds Manu Returns, and Housefull 3. Given the trend, I feel that Half Girlfriend will also enter this club.
On the strength of chartbuster songs, Chetan Bhagat’s popularity with the urban youth, and Shraddha Kapoor in a big commercial film after Baaghi (her big commercial films always tend to get a huge opening), I expect Half Girlfriend to get a double-digit opening. I feel the opening will be a little higher than another Mid-May post-IPL release, Tanu Weds Manu Returns, given that both leads of HG are more popular than those leads. Interestingly, that film also actually released towards the end of IPL season, while the season was going on but about to end, similar as to how it is with HG. However, I do feel that the audience WOM (Word of Mouth) of HG will be mixed: the novel of which the film is based on was not received well by critics, director Mohit Suri’s last film Hamari Adhuri Kahani failed at the box office (even the Super Hit Ek Villain before that carried mixed WOM), and Arjun Kapoor has been receiving some criticism in the promos for not looking the part of his character and/or being unable to portray the role. However, as was even seen with Mohit Suri’s last flop Hamari Adhuri Kahani, I feel that the WOM may be better in the small/mass centres.
My Box Office Predictions for Half Girlfriend:
Opening Day: 10.50 crore net
Opening Weekend: 35+ crore net
Lifetime Collections: 101 crore net
Overall Box Office Verdict:Hit
Overall, the film will emerge a box office success. However, for the post-IPL period, things are not going well. Back in 2013, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani nearly got to the 200 crore mark, but ever since then, most of the films released in this period have hardly gone above the 100 crore mark (Tanu Weds Manu Returns was an exception, which got to the 150 crore mark). Half Girlfriend will be a box office success, but will it really be successful given the potential of collections during the post-IPL period? …. Not quite!