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Box Office Predictions for Thugs of Hindostan

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Aamir Khan. Amitabh Bachchan. Katrina Kaif. Yash Raj Films. The most expensive Hindi film of all time. Does it get any bigger? Oh it does, when you think of the fact that this is the first time the two legendary superstars Aamir Khan and Amitabh Bachchan will be in the same film and as the main leads!

If one called Thugs of Hindostan the biggest Hindi film of the decade, or even of all-time, there was not much you can argue about!

But then…..the theatrical trailer happened!

Now seriously, what was that? That was the first question that popped in my mind once I saw it. Poor VFX. A vibe of Amitabh’s flop Eklavya and Aamir’s flop Mangal Pandey. Weird scenes of Englishmen speaking Hindi. Aamir Khan acting cartoony. After watching the trailer, I thought “disastrous trailer,” a huge contrast to Dhoom 3’s trailer which I thought was spectacular back in 2013!

Interestingly, I wasn’t the only one that shared that opinion. Many on social media criticized the trailer, especially for its similarities to Pirates of the Caribbean. Those associated with the film may deny similarities to POC, but it’s all too obvious:

Pirates of the Caribbean : Thugs of Hindostan

“Pirates” has been replaced by “Thugs” to describe a group of people, “of” is still there, and the location “Caribbean” has been replaced by “Hindostan.” This cannot be a coincidence! Furthermore, Aamir appears to be imitating Jack Sparrow, and as a result, Aamir’s acting in the trailer has been criticized, something which rarely happens!

There are other problems with Aamir Khan in the film. Whereas Yash Raj heroes have been given very manly, macho looks in recent years (think Salman in the Tiger series, Salman in Sultan, SRK in JTHJ, and Aamir himself in Dhoom 3), here he has been given a very uncomfortable to watch, a weird look that is hard to tolerate. He especially looks ridiculous in the Suraiyya song promo. Aamir is known to be associated with class, and to see him in that ridiculous look in a song that appears down-market type will be very off-putting for a huge section of the audience. Besides, Aamir acting clownish doesn’t work well. I recall not liking his acting in the trailer of Secret Superstar, and the film did not perform well either at the box office in India, even if it was only a cameo. A close example I can think of for a class-appealing actor not being appreciated for doing down-market things is Ranbir Kapoor in Besharam.


There are more problems! A huge chunk of the trailer has Amitabh Bachchan sword fighting, and ends with him delivering the main dialogue (“Aazaadi hai gunna…”). With all due respect to Mr. Bachchan and as a fan of his, the problem is that he has gotten older, and he’s not in the phase where the youth would go running to the theatres to watch his film. If the film itself features Amitabh heavily, especially with long drawn-out sword fights of his (the film has a long 2 hour 44 minutes runtime!), it will bore the audience. Besides, Amitabh’s look and feel of his character are similar to his film Eklavya, which bombed at the box office.

There are also seem to be many people upset with the fact that the leading ladies, Katrina Kaif and Fatima Sana Shaikh, have hardly been shown to do anything substantial in the promos. Fatima in particular hasn’t uttered a word in any promo, which makes one wonder how much of a role she would actually have in the film. Regarding Katrina Kaif, it must be mentioned that she has looked absolutely stunning in the promos as usual! The small glimpses of her in the trailer were one of the only things in the trailer that were loved by many and came as a breath of fresh air. It would not be surprising if she turns out to be the sole saving grace in the film!

I would also like to talk about some alarming things I have seen on social media recently. A few prominent figures have been posting polls asking about the film. “Will Thugs of Hindostan surpass Dangal to emerge Aamir’s highest grosser?” “Will you watch TOH in theatres?” The majority in both cases voted the answer “No,” which is worrying. Now, people may say that social media has minimal effect on box office collections, but social media has such a huge reach in today’s time that there is an effect. Race 3’s trailer was mocked heavily on social media and the film ended up underperforming at the box office too (a lesson I learnt, as I was expecting the film to do very well at the box office with potential ground level positivity off social media, but I was wrong). Also, the advance booking seems to be generating mixed signals so far, with some reporting huge sales and others reporting less. The thing is, Thugs of Hindostan was such a huge film (arguably the biggest Hindi film ever on paper) before the promos got released, but the promos have done more damage than good, with a poor response being received.

Now, about director Vijay Krishna Acharya. After directing the flop Tashan in 2008, he directed Dhoom 3, which was an All-Time Blockbuster. Many people online tend to criticize Dhoom 3 and call it Aamir’s worst film and whatnot, and yes the public reports were mixed, but the fact is that there was a section of the audience that enjoyed the film (I personally loved it!). The film had earthquake level pre-release buzz with a huge response to its promos and tremendous curiosity to see Aamir in a Dhoom film, which resulted in a record-breaking opening day (on a non-holiday!), and then the mixed WOM (Word of Mouth) with holidays was enough to make the film the biggest grosser ever. Unfortunately, with TOH, Vijay seems to be back to his Tashan roots, with some down-market looking things and Aamir’s character and dialogue delivery somewhat resembling that of Anil Kapoor.

Everything in TOH seems downgraded from Dhoom 3. The Aazaadi hai gunaah dialogue seems like a poor version of Bande hai hum uske. The Suraiyya song seems like a poor version of Kamli. Whereas everything in Dhoom 3 looked grand and visually appealing, everything in TOH looks worse, at times downmarket (the Suraiyya song, for example). Where in Dhoom 3 Aamir had a very intense vibe to his character and a terrific physique, in TOH he looks like a clown.

Aamir himself doesn’t seem to be talking highly of TOH. Rather, he mentions being nervous and not being afraid to fail. There have also been reports of him not being happy with the negative viewer reaction to VFX in the trailer, him wanting to change the climax of the film, and him wanting to trim the film to make it shorter. Also, Aamir said that this is perhaps the only time in his career that he has selected a film based on his character. The sad part is, his acting as that character has been criticized by many!

As the film is releasing on the biggest holiday of the year, a record opening day can be expected. There are many families in India that venture the cinema hall after Diwali festivities are over to watch a film, and they will surely go to watch two of the biggest superstars ever in India Aamir Khan and Amitabh Bachchan being in the same film for the first time! Big solo films released on this holiday always tend to break the record for highest collections in a single day, be it Ra One, Krrish 3, Happy New Year, or Prem Ratan Dhan Payo. Thugs of Hindostan will beat the highest collections in a single day record of Sanju (which collected 46.73 crores nett on day three in only a Hindi version!). However, the trouble will start from day two onwards. I feel that the audience WOM (Word of Mouth) for Thugs of Hindostan will be negative, big drops will be seen over the four-day weekend, and the film will crash at the box office on Monday. As the saying goes….the bigger they are, the harder they fall!

My Box Office Predictions for Thugs of Hindostan (all versions, all languages, all India):

Opening Day: 49 crore nett (record opening day for Hindi films)

Opening 4-Day Weekend: 120 crore nett

Lifetime Collections: 178 crore nett

Overall Verdict: Flop

Believe me, everyone, I didn’t want to seem so negative. Even after the poor trailer, I thought that Aamir has to be smarter than this, and there must be something in the film. I thought that maybe, as usual, Aamir will give the highest grosser of all time, just as I correctly predicted for Dhoom 3, PK, and Dangal before they released. I still thought that maybe Aamir could open the 400 crore club this time. Unfortunately, though, I just cannot find any redeeming factor in Thugs of Hindostan. The lack of novelty in the storyline only makes things worse. I am highly disappointed by the promos. It also hit me that as perfect as Aamir may be, he is not God….he is human, and it is only in human nature to make mistakes. Thugs of Hindostan will not only be remembered as one of Aamir Khan’s worst films, but it will also be remembered for how a perfectionist went wrong!

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  1. what a joke Bobby sindhu opening record and results flop
    this movie earn minimum 270-300cr
    I challenge your predictions
    I know movie is copy of pirates of creeabian

  2. Garvit Singh Garry Reply

    Aamir Khan the world biggest superstar
    God of Indian cinema Pride of India
    Thugs of ho 500cr in India 1000cr worldwide
    And after China it collect 3000cr

  3. Sumit kumar Reply

    This prediction is going to wrong again…..I don’t understand your logic….I think u are forgetting that Diwali is a big festive session and with a huge bugut film u can’t predict 178 cr only. I can challenge u that in worst scenario it will collect more than 250 cr. Note it.

  4. Zero_damaka Reply

    never seen someone as bias as bobby sidhu!!
    i guess this movie will collect more than 200 crores in the fast weekend.

  5. honest man Reply

    thugs of hindostan’s hindi version only will open above 50 crore net( golmal again with a clash opened above 30 crore net on the same day last year with no buzz and also having ajay devgun whose multiplex pull is nowhere near aamir). thugs opening day ( hindi) will be 50-55 crore net. the question is will it cross the 37.5 crore net advance of bahubali which seems unbeatable as the highest for bollywood film is only 25 crore ( tzh) .and if toh fails to beat bahubali advance then for the next 2 or 3 years noone will beat that, mark my words. so that’s what we need aamir to do as that is depending on his stardom and going by the things aamir has done in his career i think he will beat that. the opening day 41 crore is certain to be beaten and it will also definetly beat the 127 crore weekend of bahubali2(hindi). the 246 crore first week of bahubali and lifetime record of dangal will depend on wom.

    and those people who are saying toh trailer is bad and zero trailer is great. i am asking a simple question to those srk fans will zero had a better advance booking and opening that toh. if not then either srk is a very small star because he can’t give better opening even with a great trailer or toh trailer is actualy better. srk fans choose any of the 2. because i know very well that toh opening will be far bigger than zero.

    • how many times Aamir deliverd record breaking opening in the last 10 years in his so called best phase? only once and that was dhoom 3 which neat chennai express’s openkng day collection by just 2 crores despite the fact that dhoom 3 was the biggest franchise of hindi cinema. And do you know how many times this small star SRK deliverd record breaking opening day in the last 10 years in his so called bad phase? Three. RA.One,Chennai Express And Happy New Year. And Zero will have a non-holiday release so please don’t compare it with TOH which will release on the biggest national holiday. Nevertheless, if you want to, compare the weekend collections.

      • @Shahid kapor fan, lol on your math you moron. first check the release time and genre of all their films in last 10 years if you have some IQ left. according to that logic even race 3 was a franchise why did it fail to get record breaking opening? you are just a jealous hater. the truth is aamir is biggest superstar and the only thing lacked was a pure holiday release as all his films released on workind day including dhoom 3. in commercial film he is still the biggest crowd puller. just get a life jealous moron.

        • Then how blind Aamir fans comparing Holiday release TOH with Non holiday release Zero. TOH have 1st day and weekend both holidays but in case of Zero opening day is working day as well as weekend is normal non holiday weekend.

          • You hypocrite didnt you morons compared PK’s opening with happy new year opening???? Didnt you fools started jumping with happy new year which opened on holiday broke dhoom 3’s non holiday opening record by small margin????

  6. Sohom Pramanick Reply

    I am a SRK fan, and I find this article absolutely harsh.
    How can you assume the film is so bad and the WOM will be negative? It might be or might not be.
    From the article, it seems that you have assumed TOH to be a bad film already. I agree the promos have been dull and not so good, but we should at least wait for the film to arrive before we jump into any sort of conclusion.

  7. Hahaha..
    Boby prediction Dena band kar de…

    In worst case TOH will collect 350cr beating all movies except Dangal..

    My prediction..

    Fist day-58cr
    Weekend(4 days)-205cr
    LT-545cr…India net

    Ye sallu srk ki movie nahi hai ye movie hai Aamir The Global Megastar ki..

    Diwali ko Box office pe bahot bada Dhamaka hone Wala hai aur bahubali2 ka record easily tutega..

    Take a screen shot!

    Thugs of hindostan sab record todnewali hai..

    Twitter pe 4-5 log bhonkenge toh kuch farak nahi padega kyunki Aamir ki power hai neutral audience …

    Neutral audience box office ko hila ke rakh denge aur Aamir hai to log ankhe band kar ke dekhne jayenge…

    Bahot hi entertaing movie hogi…
    Wait n watch…

    Aamir naam hi kaffi hai ATHG/ATBB ke liye.

    • It will be a Flop for sure.. it can be seen and Aamir is not confident.
      He never market his movies but this time he did which shows lack of confidence.
      Looks like his Mela movie.. very dark with limited comic factor.

  8. Boby tune Jo 178cr predict Kiya hai na wo 3 -4 days mein cross hoga…

    I can bet…

  9. TOH creates history in advance booking..
    Still 2 days to go..

    I m very sure 58cr ki opening hogi…

    Agar below 53cr opening hue toh Mai bollyarena hamesha ke liye chodd dunga..

    • Prashaya sharam hai tho bollyearna choodu…tune jo prediction diya 58 cr bhi nhi hua …53 cr bhi nhi hua…life time collection tho chod.1 st day toh ne 52.75 all india mai kiya …hindi mai sirf 50 cr kiya….agar sharam hai tho ye site chood …aur apna wada pura kar…

  10. Ceiling khan Reply

    Dude if you consider the twitter and YouTube comment section as the theatre going audience..then bro u are highly mistaken..the films risky due to high’s true..
    Even the buzz in twitter for jhms was is history..
    If toh doesn’t connect then it’ll be a flop..manual pandey was a very very boring this one looks entertaining..
    U are just horrible man

  11. You will have an egg on your face if the final product is decent. You cannot judge how entertaining a film will be from its trailers. TOH trailer and promos may seem poor, but are still a million times better than Race 3’s.
    TOH may turn out to be a bad film, but if it entertains like Dhoom 3 then nothing can stop it from crossing 300 crores.

  12. Lol. 178 crore lifetime
    That will be the first 5 day collection of the film

  13. A j styles Reply

    This time you will be correct bobby sidhu,,,,TOH ka trailer+songs+ amir ki over acting+ poor vfx sab bakwaas h…film 250crs bhi India me nhi kar payega…

    Trailer to 2.0 aur zero ka bhi average tha lekin I think ki is baar 2.0 baazi mar le jayegi..

    Aamir ke fans ka ghamand first weekend ke baad tut jayega…😠

    • I will wait for you to come and show us your face after the release. I hope you don’t hide as i have already taken screenshot of your comment and i will show it back to you on your face if u have guts don’t hide after the release of the film which is not too far. till then i suggest you to buy burnol as you badly need it.

  14. Poor prediction as in worst case this lifetime prediction will be cross within first 5 days , i know some people who are habitual praise Hollywood shits definitely not going to like it but does it matter.
    This film is going to create havoc at smaller center & being the biggest star of multiplex aamir name give this one a big pull.
    1st Day 50 Cr
    Extended Weekend 175 Cr
    Extended Week 260 Cr
    Lifetime 380-400 cr

  15. Your lifetime prediction will be totally wrong…
    It is not far away to reach the life time total collection of TOH..Why bollyarena is posting your guest article when you are predicting only 178 crores…

  16. The movie will definitely have something. Its Aamir Khan who keeps movie in silence and not allow anyone to get into till Someome actually watch the movie ! It’s going at least 300+ crores !

  17. 178 Crore 😂😂😂😂😂😂
    SRKian Bobby Sidhu Bahut Bura Troll Hoga Bhai

  18. Good to be back.

    Lol. The LT you are predicting will be done within 6 days itself.
    Don’t troll yourself.

  19. Your prediction for total lifetime collection of TOH is 178 cr nett..which is completely baseless. Aamir is giving masterpiece movies for last 8 to 10 years. If People will go to theatre to watch Aamir ll be more than 200crs..How bollyarena has posted your prediction without checking it