Dangal Box Office Prediction – Set to rewrite History

Guest Article by Bobby Sidhu:

Note: The article was published on 22 December 2016 before the release of Dangal. Before anyone, it was Bobby Sidhu who predicted 375 crore lifetime for Dangal which is likely to come true.

Ghajini, 3 Idiots, Dhoom 3 and PK. Four All-Time Historic Blockbusters of Bollywood, all released during Christmas, by one man: the ace Khan, Mr.Perfecionist…..Aamir Khan!

Come to think of it, expectations from an Aamir Khan film are gargantuan. Whenever Aamir releases a film, the audience is expecting the film to be a classic. After all, he has set the bar so high for himself, starting from the days of Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikander to a Lagaan to a Dil Chahta Hai to a Rang De Basanti to a 3 Idiots. Over the years, the audience has loved his films!

There are some concerns regarding Dangal. The first concern is, the similarity with SULTAN. Interestingly, this is not the first time that I have noticed similarities between a Salman and Aamir film releasing near each other. In December 2013, Aamir’s Dhoom 3 released during Christmas, and 7 months later, Salman’s Kick released during Eid: both films were high-budget, huge scale, action extravaganzas (in terms of scale and budget), with both Khans playing a thief in their respective films! Then in December 2014, Aamir’s PK released during Christmas, followed by Salman’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan 7 months later in July during Eid: both films were based on social issues and portrayed the main actor’s character being a man with a heart of gold, standing up for justice.

This time, it is the opposite, with Salman’s film having released first (released on Eid) and then Aamir’s film releasing later (during Christmas). Both films are wrestling-based, both films have a Haryanvi background, and both films are 2016 releases. Both films have the protagonist wanting to overcome odds and reach the top, either by doing it himself (Salman) or through others (Aamir’s daughters).  The difference is, Sultan was based on a fictional character, whereas Dangal is based on a real story. Also, as Aamir himself mentioned on Koffee With Karan, when Aditya Chopra told him that Sultan is a love story, he right away knew that his film Dangal is different as it is based on a father’s relationships with his daughters.

The second concern with Dangal is that the director Nitesh Tiwari directed two films, Chillar Party (which he co-directed) and Bhootnath Returns, and both films did not do well at the box office.

With all that being said, how often do you hear statements like “best film of the decade” being thrown around? Not often, right? Well, that is exactly what has been heard about Dangal from veterans of the Hindi film industry such as Karan Johar and Javed Akhtar!

So, does Aamir have a winner on his hands? Better yet, is that even a question? Of course he does, as usual! Not only does Aamir have a winner, but he has a film that will do earth-shattering, record-breaking lifetime collections! As Aamir always does, he is ready to re-write box office history on Christmas…..again!

In terms of opening day collections, it would be foolish to expect Dangal to get a Dhoom 3 type opening (which is Aamir’s biggest opening day ever). Dhoom 3 had earth-shattering pre-release buzz/hype, which translated into a record-breaking opening day collection of 36 crores, on a non-holiday! Dangal’s pre-release buzz is lower than Dhoom 3, and is more comparable to Aamir’s last release PK. PK collected 26 crores on its opening day, and without the presence of a female star (Anushka in PK) or a crowd-pulling director (Rajkumar Hirani for PK), I expect Dangal’s opening day collection to be slightly lower than that of PK, including when you factor in the demonetization issue which still seems to be a problem for the single screen audience.

However, there are dubbed versions for DANGAL that will be released in Tamil and Telegu and usually, these versions contribute approximately 2 crores to the opening day collection of a big film. Overall, I am expecting Dangal’s opening day to be about equal that of PK.

Based on the above comments from those veterans and given the terrific public response to the theatrical trailer, I am sure that Dangal will have amazing WOM (Word-of-Mouth). Another reason why I feel the WOM will be so good is because films, where the female characters have a very important role to play and are based on real-life issues, tend to have tremendous WOM in India, such as Chak De India and PINK.

If we look at the last 7 years, 3 Idiots is the film that has had the best WOM in Hindi cinema. I don’t think Dangal will reach that level WOM, but it will get pretty darn close! If 3 Idiots had a 90% Ormax Media WOM score, then Dangal’s will likely be in the 80+ % range, similar to another sports-based film on a real-life character Bhaag Milkha Bhaag but ahead of Aamir’s last film PK (which had a 75% WOM score). Dangal will have excellent WOM at both multiplexes and single-screens, small centres and big centres. The story of a father and his two daughters, combined with the patriotic theme of wanting to win gold for India, will result in fantastic WOM across the country of India.

Now, time to analyze where DANGAL’s lifetime collections can end up, with a comparison to Aamir’s previous films!

 

3 IDIOTS:

  • Opening Day: 12.5 crores
  • Lifetime Collections: 202 crores
  • Multiplier from Opening Day to Lifetime Collections: 16.16 (AMAZING trend)
  • Ormax Media WOM (Word of Mouth) score: 90%

 

DHOOM 3:

  • Opening Day: 36.22 crores
  • Lifetime Collections: 284.27 crores
  • Multiplier from Opening Day to Lifetime Collections: 7.85 (Average trend)
  • Ormax Media WOM (Word of Mouth) score: 61%

 

PK:

  • Opening Day: 26.63 crores
  • Lifetime Collections: 340.8 crores
  • Multiplier from Opening Day to Lifetime Collections: 12.80 (Excellent trend)
  • Ormax Media WOM (Word of Mouth) score: 75%

 

I must add that each of the three films above had the added advantage of the holidays falling on the right days which made it a bit easier for the films to trend the way they did. For the above films, in order from first film to last, Christmas was on Friday (opening day), Wednesday, and Thursday respectively. For Dangal, however, Christmas falls on Sunday, which already is a holiday, and therefore it eliminates the holiday advantage. As a matter of fact, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day also fall on Saturday/Sunday, basically eliminating that holiday advantage as well. Basically, Dangal will have to trend almost like a non-holiday release. Because I am predicting Dangal WOM to be better than PK but lower than 3 Idiots, I predict that Dangal will multiply its opening day by approximately 14.48, the middle number between PK’s multiplier (12.80) and 3 Idiots multiplier (16.16).

 

Dangal Box Office Prediction by me:

  • 1st Day: 26 crores net
  • 1st Weekend: 98 crores net
  • Lifetime Collections: 375 crores net
  • Overall Box Office Verdict: All Time Blockbuster

Note: It also includes collectins from Tamil and Telugu versions.

Past trends show that since 2008, every Christmas release of Aamir has gone on to become the biggest grosser of all time. Whereas he usually breaks his previous lifetime record by an average of 75 crores, this time it will be approximately half of that (35 crores more than the lifetime 340 crore record of Bollywood’s biggest grosser PK) because of a lack of holiday advantage combined with the demonetization issue which will affect the film to a small extent, but not large. Nonetheless, Dangl will have three open weeks at the box office without any significant competition in which the box office will be ripped apart and destroyed by the aggressive force of Dangal!

The article has been written by Bobby Sidhu who is a Box office enthusiast from Canada.You can follow him on Twitter @BobbySidhu.

If you want to write for us, send your articles on editor@bollyarena.net

38 COMMENTS

  1. Wow nice article..n thanks@BobbySidhu
    Exactly i also predicts 370cr.
    Dangal-370cr..
    Kal se Dangal hi hoga…

  2. Dangal will never cross more than 275 crores for sure.
    My Prediction
    •1st Day: 26 crores net
    •1st Weekend: 92 crores net
    •Lifetime Collections: 275 crores net
    •Overall Box Office Verdict: Blockbuster

  3. It could be possible if demonetization issue not came but now 370 is really uphill task.Really !!!

  4. Bobby Sindhu has gone mad. 375 cr. is humongous task considered no extra holiday.
    Even if it is as much liked by audience as it is being liked by critiics still it will not cross PK.
    At the time of PK Christmas was on Thursday and hence ticket prices remained on high level throughout the week but here prices will be down on Monday.
    My honest prediction considered WOM better than PK and less than 3 Idiots:
    Day
    1-26
    2-34
    3-40
    Weekend-90
    4-19
    5-18
    6-17
    7-16
    Week-160
    8-13
    9-18
    10-21
    2nd weekend-52
    11-9
    12-8
    13-7
    14-7
    2nd week-83
    3rd week-28
    4th week-12
    Rest-5
    Total-288 cr.
    Verdict-ATBB

  5. With WOM like Sultan less than 231 cr.
    That’s the difference. Many can give ATBB with extraordinary WOM but not with mixed or only positive WOM unless you are Salman Khan.

    • May god give salman a chance to have the highest grosser in his bag.It is only belonging to amir.this is the difference.

  6. These people gone mad compliantly they are saying 370 cr

    Are bhai halwa hai Kya 370 cr

    First get 300 cr than talk for 370

    Aamir is good but 370 not halwa

  7. No Offense but 350 is not a joke and there’s no chance for 370 or 400 at all! Let’s be realistic guys :)
    PK and BB were one of the best movies of this decade, still they couldn’t reach 350 when there was no demonetization, few extra holidays, hiked prices as well as open weeks. So, if DANGAL has excellent word of mouth with open weeks, and people watch it on repeat, then it might cross 300 crores total domestic. Otherwise, with no item songs, no 1st rate heroine, its final total might be between 285-305.
    Tough fight for HGOTY with Sultan. In any case it will be ALL TIME BLOCKBUSTER for sure, along with SULTAN. Both Aamir and Salman are in top league, making and breaking records!!!!!!

  8. First day 24 cr.. Life time box office collection 200 cr +.. u guys never observed note ban situation..rular area box office collection too low might be affected

  9. Comment:
    1$t day :29cr
    1$t weekend :106cr
    1$t week : 197cr
    2nd weekend: 70 cr
    2nd week: 128 cr
    3rd weekend :32 cr
    3rd week :55cr
    4th weekend :18cr
    4th week : 28cr
    5th weekend :8 cr
    5th week :12 cr
    6th weekend: 2.50cr
    6th week: 4 cr
    7th weekend : 1 cr
    7th week: 1.6cr
    lifetime total : 430cr.

  10. Thanks to Tax free Status and very high tickets price for first two weeks even on weekdays & christmas & new year holidays in school & colleges it achieve that figures. What is footfall and BB Has more footfall than Pk BUT it figures less than PK . 3 open weeks plus 3000 plus screens even on 3rd week that what great it achieve? Near 300 was always there but plus whatever it get due to above factors especially in Up & Haryana and now in delhi. So far GREAT but Nothing EXTRAORDINARY. and so about demonitization it affects more in Nov. And not in december so thats why he ask for tax free status and high tickets price.

  11. Abey Nj,yeh ff ka record bhi tod raha hai aamir BB ka,tub tumhari yeh bakwaas bhi band ho jayegi.aise baat kar rahe ho jaise dangal koi massy commrcial film hai.

    • Sahi kaha bro…ye sallu ke fans gadhe hai hamesha excuses..inki aukat nahi ATHG dene ki aur sallu ko Megastar bolte hai…Megastar eid pe zinda hein..

  12. Rofl!!!
    Bhaitards b4 Release Sidhu gone mad,
    370 is not a Cakewalk.
    And now they are trolling themselves by giving lame excuses.
    Even they know(but they wont accept) Without Demonetisation & If XMAS & NY had fallen on Any other day this film would have Crossed 400 Cr.
    & With Any popular Actress + Masala Even 425+ Cr.
    But Happy after 100,150,200,250,300 now Aamir is going to create 350 cr Club &
    Congratulations to @Bobbysidhu for 100%Accurate prediction

  13. List of All Time Grossers in India (Bollywood Movies) –

    1. Kismet (1943) – 1 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 14 Years.
    2. Mother India (1957) – 4 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 3 Years.
    3. Mughal-E-Azam (1960) – 5.5 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 15 Years.
    4. Sholay (1975) – 15 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 19 Years.
    5. Hum Aapke Hain Kaun (1994) – 69.75 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 7 Years.
    6. Gadar (2001) – 75.5 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 5 Years.
    7. Dhoom 2 (2006) – 80.25 crore nett. Blockbuster. Record – 2 Years.
    8. Ghajini (2008) – 114.67 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 1 Year.
    9. 3 Idiots (2009) – 202.5 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 3 Years.
    10. Chennai Express (2013) – 220.5 crore nett. Blockbuster. Record – 3 Months.
    11. Krrish 3 (2013) – 232.55 crore nett. Blockbuster. Record – 1 Month.
    12. Dhoom 3 (2013) – 282.4 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 1 Year.
    13. PK (2014) – 339.1 crore nett. ATBB. Record – 2 years
    14. Dangal (2016) – 375+ crore nett. ATBB
    Currently on.

    Note – ATBB – All Time Blockbusters. ATG – All Time Grossers

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