Guest Article

Box Office Predictions for Toilet Ek Prem Katha

Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Toilet-Ek Prem Katha releases during a critical period for the Hindi film industry. The tally of flops has been rising in the post-Baahubali 2 era. Half Girlfriend, Tubelight, Jagga Jasoos, Munna Michael, Mubarakan, and Jab Harry Met Sejal have all failed at the box office. The industry hasn’t seen any major box office success since Badrinath Ki Dulhania, which released back in March. The question is, will Toilet – Ek Prem Katha be the film to rescue the industry? Will it be the film that finally stops the bleeding?

The theatrical trailer of TEPK was released a few months ago and received a positive response. It was evident from the trailer that the film carries a very Indian feel (which last week’s JHMS lacked). The trailer also placed emphasis on the subject matter that the film deals with, a very important issue particularly in the rural areas of India: the access (or, lack of) to toilets. The issue, easy for the audience of India to connect with (especially in rural areas), combined with the dose of entertainment (comedy) shown in the trailer, makes the film seem like a winner.

Akshay Kumar’s biggest grossers have either been films where he was playing a macho/action-oriented role (Rowdy Rathore, Rustom, Airlift, Holiday) or a comedy franchise (Housefull 2/3 and Jolly LLB 2). TEPK neither has Akshay in that macho/action role and neither is it a part of a comedy franchise.

Box Office Predictions for Toilet Ek Prem Katha

Another negative for the film has been the somewhat poor pre-release buzz of the film. After the well-received theatrical trailer, the buzz declined due to the songs not really clicking enough with listeners. The poor buzz will translate into an opening day collection that will be one of Akshay’s lowest in the last two years. It will be a good first day number, but not upto the mark of his other openers. Tax exemptions that the film has received (such as in UP) will help the first day collections slightly, but it will still be a somewhat below-the-mark opening day collection.

I strongly feel that TEPK will carry public WOM (Word of Mouth) ranging in the good-very good range. The director did have a flop film released back in 2012 (Yeh Jo Mohabbat Hai), but that was a long time ago and the director seems to be in form this time, from an audience point of view. I feel that TEPK will be one of those films where viewers find a middle section of the film boring/dragging, but the beginning and ending sections will be strong enough for the audience to like the film, overall. Public WOM will be strong in big and small centres/circuits.

A decent enough opening, combined with strong public reports, two weeks of a free run (A Gentleman is the next notable film releasing, and that releases two weeks after TEPK, and last week’s JHMS is already reaching its lifetime collection), universal appeal, some holidays (including the national holiday of Independence Day), and tax exemptions in states (the film will probably get more exemptions after release) should all result in TEPK crossing the 100 crore mark. Unfortunately, given the high distributor price, the touch-and-go scenario won’t be enough to give the film a Hit verdict, although it will be enough for recovery.

My box office predictions for Toilet – Ek Prem Katha:
Opening Day: 11 crore nett
Opening 3-Day Weekend: 40+ crore nett
Lifetime Collections: 106 crore nett
Overall Verdict: Semi-Hit

The article has been written by Bobby Sidhu who is a box office enthusiast and have an internship in a tax firm in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter Bobby Sidhu.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the writer do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of Bollywood Arena. If you also want to write for us, send your articles on editor@bollyarena.net. 

48 Comments

  1. Tiger Zinda Hai Reply

    His predictions mostly come true because he keeps them realistic considering all the factors.

    • Booby Bhaiya itna kam prediction ???
      I think u r the same guy who predicted tubelight 250
      Half gf 100+
      And latest jhms 90+
      It proves ur all prediction goes wrong
      So I will trust on arena team
      And also guys fed up with jhms will surely come to watch this movie

    • Anish Thakkar Reply

      @bollyarena not at all interested in reading the review of this idiot @bobbysiddhu . If u have dobe some homework by urself then please update else not interested in such hippocrats

    • Most of the movies are going flop post Bahubali 2 because BB2 has taken away the whole capacity of the Indian public of watching movies in a year. If we keep aside movie freaks, most of the public of India watches 1 or 2 movies in a year max. Bahubali 2 has been watched by almost every movie goer of India and that’s why the quota of the whole public of India of watching movies this year has been consumed by BB2. It will now take some time before public has replenished their budgets of watching movies and only then other movies will start getting hit. Probably, TEPK will now get hit as JHMS didn’t consume any quota.

    • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

      @bollyarena

      kya Bahubali era lga rakha h😡

      JHMS love story thi , or BB2 action….

      or log pagal nhi h , jo bar bar War scene dekhte rhe ,

      Ha bas logo ko kuch nya dekhna chahte h…..

      something New….like TEPK

      Or ye South India to h nhi , jo BB2 se koi nuksaan ho jayega…

      saale Sallu or hklu apni Nakaamyabi ka thikra BB2 k sar fod rhe h😂😂😂

      km se km Oppning weekend me to 80-90 crore krte…

      kyoki oppning weekend me movie sirf Stardom se chalti h…

      WOM to 7 din baad kaam krta h

    • opening—- 7 to 8 crores — ab to bollywood ko holidays ka bhi koi fyda nehi hotaaa–
      mushkil hain

      • vishal@JHMS lifetime 65cr biggest disaster have some shame and get lost from here

      • @vishal kyu pe pagal jaag gaya tu . 5 din se soya hua tha kya . JHMS release hone se pehle to badi deenge maar raha tha . Keh raha tha ki screenshot lelo JHMS hit hogi . TEPK ko beat kregi . Ab bol maanta hai ki Akki is a bigger star.
        Ab beta chup chap tu bhi 11 Aug ko TEPK dekh aayi .

      • buneysrkian Reply

        vishal@ first day will be 11-12 cr.
        lifetime 80 cr bhi nahi hoga…

  2. Distribution rights were sold at 53 CR’s and if it grosses 106 CR’s it will break even and anything around 115 CR’s it will be clean hit.
    Distributor n trade analyst:rohit jaiswal

  3. Jolly llb was not a big franchise. Earlier part did just 30 CR’s .akki made it biggest with jolly llb 2 by collecting more than 116 CR’s.

  4. Its a fact that tepk is carrying one of the lowest buzz for an akki starrer in last two years.it needs excellent wom to cross 100 CR’s.
    My prediction
    First day :12 CR’s
    Weekend:45 CR’s
    Lifetime:110 CR’s
    Hit

  5. A great article. I appreciate it very much. So nice. I think state like up will rescue the film from becoming a victim of the bad time post bahubali 2. Still it may slightly fall short of 100cr. Due to low opening. My personal prediction is 96cr.

  6. Speaking honestly
    I feel this movie buzz is reduced too much
    Only reason is early trailer released by makers.
    Akshay film selection is very good unfortunately this movie will also struggle in Indian box office.
    Unless it get great word of mouth from critics.
    Now days audience are very selective they check review before going to movie even fans also going film after reading reviews.
    It will do business 90 to 110cr.
    My wish is it will do 140 to 150cr but if we think realistically it tough task to earn 130+ cr .
    If I commenting something about film box-office it’s just my opinion it doesn’t mean I hate akshay or any actor.
    Sometimes I abuse Akshay Kumar only because some of akshay fan are very bad they abuse other actor that I don’t like.

  7. My opening day prediction is 10.5cr.
    Saturday 11.5 cr, Sunday 13cr. Weekend 35cr.
    Monday 7cr, Tuesday 10cr, Wednesday 5.5cr, Thursday 4cr. Week: 61cr.
    Lifetime 96cr.

  8. Last week Bobby Sidhu made a bold prediction which was heavily criticised by SRK fans but he was absolutely correct . He predicted 93 CR for JHMS and now it will crawl towards 70 CR . If this comes true there will be some kind of relief for the trade and fans . The buzz of TEPK is less than Airlift, H3, Rustom and Jolly LLB 2 . The film is looking good with a perfect mix of comedy, romance and social awareness . The opening day collections will be underwhelming but if the wom is positive it can show massive growth on Saturday and Sunday . This is the last film of Akshay this year and if TEPK breaks the dry spell than all of us will be extremely happy . Cheers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Saksham@ what right prediction you talk about he prediction 19.50 FD for JHMS and TEPK have much better buzz than airlift plus the responses of the trailer are one the biggest responses ever

  9. prince sharma Reply

    srk fans bash this guy. Isne toh 90cr ka prediction kiya tha. JHMS ne toh 70cr bhi nahi karna.

  10. prince sharma Reply

    audience is becoming smarter now. This fact srk fans cant digest.

  11. prince sharma Reply

    lagta hai akki ne koi totka use kiya hai. Jo movie clash hoti hai voh mohenjo daro ban jati

  12. prince sharma Reply

    in india srk at place 3
    in OS srk at place 2
    in manipulation srk at place 2 after rakesh roshan
    hahahahahaha…………

    • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

      @prince sharma

      @NN :-

      jahil gawaar anpadh khi ka ,

      bhojpuri man ,

      Srk Manipulation me b KING h , kisi ki Okaat nhi jo use hra ske ,

      srk 1995 se manipulation kr rha h…

      srk ka Mind hi manipulate h

      and u Jahil gawaar give Srk k no 2 position ???

      😂😂😂😉😉😉

    • Tere se bara jahil gawaar pure duniya me koi nahi hai . Re anparh boi bas trade figure batata hai baki sites producer figure
      Hny trade 178cr hai producer 205cr .prdp trade 194cr producer 215cr . Even dhoom 3 trade 260cr or producer 285cr ab bol jahil gawaar ..
      Itna bhi is jahul gawaar ko nahi pata ki agar manipulation koi krega to us husab se tax bhi dena hoga ..mtlb agar film 100cr kr rha or vo manipulate kr ke 120cr bata rha to usko 120cr ke hisab se tax dena parega ..
      Aise aise jahul gawaar se door hi rehna chahiye

      • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

        @bollywood

        dhoom 3 ne rentrak se figure diye the ,

        or 260 trade figure Hindi collection k h , or or baki bache south ka collection h😈

        mooorkh….Dangal hindi ne b 275 crore kiye h ,or baki bache south se aaye h…

        jabki HNY ne hindi me 178 crore kiye h….200crore b cross nhi hue h😂😂😂😂

        fake producer figure👎👎👎👎 srk ki 1 hi movie 200 crore cross kr payi h😛😛😜😜😝😝

  13. Nadeem Gill Reply

    1st Day :15 To 16 Cr
    2nd Day :18 To 19 Cr
    3rd Day : 20 To 21 Cr
    Life Time 130 Cr Plus

    • Patha hai Tu dimag se 125 bolra, lekin tera dil bolta ki zaroor 250 karega …

  14. my predict
    1st day 13-14cr
    2nd day 16-17cr
    3rd day 18-20cr
    4th Krishna holiday 18cr
    5th day independence day 18-19cr
    1st week 85-95cr
    life time collection 130-140cr

  15. First 5 days it will do min 80-85 crs if the WOM is very good could cross 100 in 5 days for sure, Cos right now the theme is of national importance so Akki will be first to break into 200 club after Dangal…

  16. Meun Doha me rehta hun aur Mujhe toh Bharat me pair rakhte hi jaan se maar dene tak ki dhamki mil gayi thi Twitter par jab Maine ek tweet kar diya tha apni raay JHMS ke baare mein likh di thi.

    Khair kuch samjhaya koi mana koi nahi. Khair chalta hai..dekha jaayega.

    My prediction for TEPK is opening 11-13 weekend 39-42 week 75+ overall 125-130 and WW gross Akki’s regular 190-210Crs

    This may vary depending upon WoM.

  17. Day 1 13 cr
    Day 2 14 cr
    Day 3 17 cr
    Day 4 12 cr
    Day 5 16 cr
    Day 6 8 cr
    Day 7 7 cr
    Week 1 87 cr
    Week 2 38 cr
    Lifetime 140 cr
    This is on basis of good ratings 7/10
    Second week no competition
    If it is accepted universally like Bajrangi,dangal,Tanu weds Mannu than akshay will join 200 cr club & will be a milestone in his career or career defining film.

  18. Love Bollywood Reply

    Day 1: 12-13
    Day 2: 14-16
    Day 3: 18-19
    Day 4: 9-10
    Day 5: 17-18
    Total till 15/08: 70-76
    Lifetime: 115-130

  19. Realistically this film can go anywhere that’s how the audience has gone since bb2 it’s harder to predict how movies will fare now. Makers should start selling they films for reasonable prices to distributors or else cinemas will close and DTH will be the new way and people will get sick of that also and films will on a Lower production level because of they greed.

  20. MahaveerMahaveer@pk.ak Reply

    Srk bola kukduku……..
    Srk naach rha gm me….party kr rha h….
    .
    .
    Or me mje le rha hu….
    Amir is great superstar of the world

    • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

      @raj_kumar fake Mahaveer

      kb sudhrega tu….

      kya real id me aane ki teri okaaat nhi rhi ???

      kyo muh chipa rha h ??

      mene thode bola tha srk ka fan bn ne ko ??

      • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

        @raj kumar sudhar jaa
        .
        .
        Wrna apne ghar jaa
        .
        .
        Or aage se 2 Mahaveer mt likhiyo.
        .
        .
        Sb smjh jayenge😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀

  21. I still think it’ll become the 1st blockbuster of Bollywood 2017… It’ll take 40-50% opening and if critics give positive reviews it’ll pick up on its 1st day…
    My prediction —> 17 cr. 1st day, 20 cr. 2nd day, 24 cr. 3rd day, 18 cr. 4th day, 25 cr. 5th day…More than 100 cr. in its 1st 5 days… 1st week 115 cr.
    Lifetime 170+ or it may become Akshay’s 1st 200 cr. grosser…

  22. My prediction
    1st day 10.5cr
    2nd day 11.5cr
    3rd day 13cr
    4th day 6cr
    5th day 13.5cr
    6th day 5.5
    7th day 5 cr
    1st week- 65cr

    8th day 2.5cr
    9th day 3cr
    10th day 4cr
    Renaining days 15cr
    Totak 90cr vo bhi ye collection achaa review ke baaf hoga
    Verdict flop

    Overseas 2M$ below
    Worldwide gross 120cr

Write A Comment