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Box Office Predictions for Jab Harry Met Sejal

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Box Office Predictions for Jab Harry Met Sejal:

The Hindi film industry is going through an extremely rough phase. The post-IPL period, which normally had a 100% success rate, saw its first box office failure this decade (2010 onwards) in the form of Half Girlfriend. Arguably the biggest star in the country, Salman Khan, saw his first box office failure this decade during the occasion of Eid, with Tubelight. Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif, two of the biggest stars, had a huge box office flop with Jagga Jasoos. Last week’s release, Mubarakan, gained some appreciation from the audience, but the opening was too low for the film to really go anywhere.

Is it the Baahubali 2 effect, where the audience is now only willing to spend their hard-earned money on films that they feel are worth it? Or, is it just that the industry keeps churning out weak films? I think it’s the latter!

All eyes are now on one star to save the industry: Mr. Shah Rukh Khan. The baadshah of Bollywood, as he is fondly called. He has the highest grosser of the year till now with Raees. In fact, this is SRK’s first film since Main Hoon Na (2004) to lead the year as the highest grosser of year when entering the month of August. Joining his team this time for his next film are Anushka Sharma and director Imtiaz Ali.

More than starpower, it’s eventually the content that does the talking at the box office. So, will Jab Harry Met Sejal be the film to get the Hindi film industry back on its feet? Unfortunately….the answer is no!

The biggest negative factor is director Imtiaz Ali. Sure, there is a small section of viewers that love his films. That can also be seen on websites like IMDB, where his films are generally highly rated, and may even be the case with JHMS. The problem though is that this doesn’t translate to the Indian audience. Rockstar (2011) was his last box office success, and even that film had mixed audience WOM (Word-of-Mouth). His two directorial ventures after that, Highway and Tamasha, both failed at the box office. As a matter of fact, his last film that was very well-appreciated by the Indian audience was Jab We Met, which released almost a decade ago! To expect Jab Harry Met Sejal to be as well-appreciated by the audience as Jab We Met is just wishful thinking.

Box Office Predictions for Jab Harry Met Sejal

Another negative factor is the casting of Shah Rukh Khan in this role. He is at an age now where he no longer suits romantic roles. As a matter of fact, the Indian audience didn’t really take to some of his recent romantic films such as Dilwale and Jab Tak Hai Jaan. The fatigue/age is visible on his face, and was noticeable in Dilwale. The audience eventually gets bored of seeing SRK in such roles, unlike the 90s and 2000s when he was delivering historic romantic blockbusters such as Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge and Kuch Kuch Hota Hai. Also, some of the dialogues being spoken by SRK in Jab Harry Met Sejal, such as “main ladkiyon ko gandi nazar se dekhta hoon” don’t suit him, given his age and his romantic/family image he has created over the years.

 

The urban romantic genre is another drawback. The highest grosser from these type of films is Ae Dil Hai Mushkil, which grossed 106 crore nett, and that too was with the help of Diwali period. Expectations are another thing: with an ADHM, it is easier to get away as the main star in the film Ranbir is more of an urban star and the audience knew well to expect urban content in the film, and eventually the film reached Hit status despite mixed WOM with the help of Diwali and Karan Johar as a director. For an SRK starrer like JHMS, there will be an audience in mass centres coming initially and they will be disappointed in the film.

The characters of SRK and Anushka in the film are also drawbacks. With one being a Punjabi character (SRK) and the other being a Gujrati character (Anushka), the film loses its ability to connect all over India. Of course, these same elements will appeal to the Punjab and Gujarat states.

It’s not to say the film itself will be a disaster though. The theatrical trailer was decent, with some dialogues and scenes standing out. The scene where SRK tells Anushka that he hasn’t found God till date, and the scene where Anushka tells SRK that she’s not the type of woman to run away from her fiancé only for SRK to reply “hass le…baad mein pata chal jaayega” are both impressive scenes/dialogues that stand out. The film also seems to have drama as the trailer suggests and as is usually there in Imtiaz Ali films.

Overall, I feel the audience WOM will be mixed in multiplexes/cities, and negative in small/mass centres, as this film looks too urban to appeal to the latter audience. The all-India WOM will be similar to JTHJ and ADHM, which interestingly, were two urban romantic films starring Anushka as well (JTHJ had SRK too) and both grossed almost the same amount as eachother, at 101 and 106 crore nett respectively. Those two films had the advantage of the Diwali festival (and Katrina as an addition for JTHJ). JHMS unfortunately doesn’t have a festival release and thus, I feel this film will collect lower than those two films. Unlike ADHM, JHMS lacks chartbusting songs as well, with only Radha and perhaps Hawayein to an extent gaining popularity. Chartbuster music is a must for a romantic film.

Being a Shah Rukh Khan starrer, the opening is obviously going to be huge. I’m expecting the opening day collection to be higher than Fan (which collected approx. 19 crore nett) as although that film had the advantage of a partial holiday, it was a multiplex film riding on SRK’s shoulders only. JHMS is also a multiplex film and doesn’t have the partial holiday advantage, but at least has Anushka Sharma and songs as well for added support. However, I do feel the opening day collection will be lower than SRK’s recent huge mass openers such as Raees and Dilwale, which both opened at approximately 20 crore nett despite each film facing a clash, respectively. This is SRK’s first theatrical trailer of a film without any mass-appeal action scenes since JTHJ.

Raksha Bandan is a partial holiday, and the major holiday for Independence Day is during the film’s second week, by which I expect the film’s collections to already be dying due to mixed-to-negative public WOM and the release of Akshay Kumar’s Toilet – Ek Prem Katha during that week, a film which seems to have universal appeal and will dent the collections of JHMS.

The Indian distributor rights have been sold at approximately 75 crores, which is an insanely high amount for a multiplex film, no matter how big a star there is in the film. The distributors are expecting 160+ crore nett business in India from an urban-looking multiplex film, which is simply not going to happen.

My Box Office Predictions for Jab Harry Met Sejal:

  • Opening Day: 19.5 crore nett
  • Opening Weekend (Fri-Mon): 60+ crore nett
  • Lifetime Collections: 93 crore nett
  • Overall Box Office Verdict: Flop

Yes, I feel that the film will fall short of the 100 crore mark. Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees will remain the biggest grosser of the year for now.

The article has been written by Bobby Sidhu who is a box office enthusiast and have an internship in a tax firm in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter Bobby Sidhu.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the writer do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of Bollywood Arena. If you also want to write for us, send your articles on editor@bollyarena.net. 

117 Comments

  1. Yar.. another wrong prediction..
    are you kidding me 93? the movie will collect minumum 130 and you can predict 93 without saw the movie..
    @bollyarena you are not accepting my comments on bobby sidhu articles why?

    • bobby sidhu pahli baar tera prediction se agree hun mein…………..

        • Mahaveer@pk.ak Reply

          @mink

          bhai Raees ne 4 saal promotion krke , 3500 screen me (BOI) …

          20 crore ki oppning ki , or 130 crore kmaye…

          Fir ye konsi Toff h….

          100 crore ka extra promotion krke bhi , sirf 100 crore hi kmayegi…

      • Nohur Hemant Reply

        THE TRUTH IS BITTER BUT I APPRECIATE THIS SITE…AT LEAST IT IS NOT FOOLING THE PUBLIC…. THIS MOVIE WILL BE FLOPPED OR AVERAGE…. SRKIANS WILL DO THEIR BEST ON GOING WATCHING THE MOVIE MULTIPLE TIME LIKE RAEES JUST TO MAKE IT HIT…. ALL THE BEST BUT I WILL GO FOR TEPK…SRK DWARF WILL ALSO FACE PROBLEM BECAUSE KRRISH 4 WILL COME ON CHRISTMAS NOW…. THIS TIME R.ROSHAN WILL LEAVE NO STONE TO MAKE MAKE KRRISH BLOCKBUSTER

    • @bobby
      Aaj phir tumpe pyaar aaya hai behad aur behisaab aaya hai
      Bhai tune khus kar diya 93 bolke but I personally feel ki it will be totally wrong and it will get avg or semi hit verdict and collection will be around 140 becoz I HV seen in many parts of west Bengal and maharastra that some Srkian HV booked total shows of jhms to make jhms atleast hit
      I wish they got success in their aim

      • @Roric yes bro I also think that this film will do at least 150+ crore due to presence for SRK because of full one week and because of toilet of akshay………it will not cross more than 160 crore…….this bobby is full of mad for predicting wrong prediction on SRK. I also wish this film to collect 150 crore despite I am huge fan of akshay Reason he is not clashing with our akshay

    • @bobby sidhu I know JHMS will not have positive word of mouth. But with mixed wom it can easily cross 100cr. With a wom like ADHM nd JTHJ it can collect around 120cr.
      93cr would be if wom is like fan. Acc to me:-
      Negative wom – 90cr
      Mixed wom – 120cr
      Positive wom – 150cr
      Extremely positive wom – 175cr
      (And when r u publishing predictions for TEPK . I m eagerly waiting for its predictions. Hope u write well for TEPK . I m eagerly waiting for 11 Aug . Tepk 1st day 1st show. Nd Jhms may be, I will wait for reports.

      • Adhm has collected 106 cr not 120 cr and let. Me remind you all songs of Adhm is chart buster and Adhm Is the only film whose all songs has more than 100 mill views and this is missing in case of jhms

    • Bollywood lover Reply

      Remember the time when bobby darling predicted 250crores for tubelight?lol.He stays in canada.doesnt have a clue about bollywood boxoffice.bas nri hai toh post kar dete hai iski article.Jhms minimum is 130crores with mix word of mouth.people seem to forget that monday is a partial holiday and then there is a 4day weekend for independence day even if tepk will be the forst choice next week still jhms will collect a decent amount.The film is sold for 67crores.Its needs 135-140crores for hit tag.agar the content clicks 140+ is possible.and highway was not a boxoffice flop as claimed by bobby darling

    • lol prediction is all about ‘without seeing the movie’

      Anyway, my prediction for this falthu buddha’s romance — 60cr life time nett

    • isske kehne se kuch nehi hoga —
      1st day -23 crores min
      4 day todat total -101 crores
      liftime will depend upon word of mouth —
      min –160 crores
      yeah banda bollywood ko barbaad kar degaaa

  2. SRK this is not a name it’s an emotion
    Emotion of billions!!He is above box office..he doesn’t need box office numbers !!
    He is Entertaining us for lst 26yrs!! Everytime we see him we feel proud.He make Films for his fans!!
    Just see Twitter/FB/Insta and u will see how we r celebrating his Movie.u will see how happy we r !!
    “Rehne do tum nahi samjoge”
    #Jab_Harry_Met_Sejal_

    • to SRK ko bol… why is he releasing his movies in theatres.. he should just release it on you tube just to see the emotions of billions of fans (which, by the way, is hypothetical)

  3. Bold predictions. SRKians buhat dislike karenge. Those who can swallow the harsh reality will agree that the buzz around the movie is low.

    Genre neutral audience ko excite nahin karta. Promos disappointing rahe hain. Saare songs bhi release nahin hue.

    Phir bhi mein 120 cr minimum expect karta hoon. Below 100 cr will be unacceptable ☹️ I am now prepared for worst

    • Maine to bahut pehle hi kaha tha

      Just hope TEPK opens lower than JHMS, lifetime to TEPK ka hi jyada rahega….But higher opening despite JHMS being urban crap and TEPK being Desi content will prove SRK>Akki in initial pull still

      • Mein to abhi bhi kehta hoon ke koi genre bura ya flop nahin hota. Movie achi hogi to chalegi kissi bhi genre ki ko. Problem he ke srk ke lye specifically ye genre ab suitable nahin he. Agar koi youngster ye movie kar raha hota to itni negativity nahin hoti. Audience srk se zyada expect karte hein.

      • Jahan tak tepk ki baat he to Tepk se apne ko kuch lena dena nahin na akki se mujhe koi problem he.

        Jo ziada achi film ho us ko ziada chalna chahye bhale jhms ho ya tepk

  4. Prashant abhishek Reply

    Who is this idiot ? JHMS will surely cross 100 crores.SRK fans, dont pay attention to this idiot and his predictions.

    • Kung Fu Yoga Reply

      @prashant dont blame bobby. I know JHMS will cross 100cr. But thats it . Bobby sidhu ki predictions apni jagah bilkul theek hai. Itna bade article mein uska har point correct hai .
      100cr chahe cross krle par JHMS ek pan india movie nahi hai. Now waiting for TEPK.

  5. 🚬Gangs of Ajay Devgn🔫🔪 Reply

    This author is an amateur(lots of grammatical errors) and a sentimental guy. His predictions have been awful esp of recent. Wont read his write ups again..

    @Arena…some fans here had asked you if they can also contribute like @Karan Singh…and others
    Give them a go…just like once a car is old or start giving signs of engine failure,you change it…this author too needs to be changed…

    • Thanks gangs of ajay devgn
      I wanted to write on mahaveer
      Bollyarena knew that what I am gonna write That’s why bollyarena was not posting comment and they never allowed me and I don’t have much box office knowledge about box office
      But now everything is fine with bollyarena

    • Dude, please re-read this author’s predictions one more time. He’s been bang on most of the times. That said, it appears as if his prediction for JHMS is also gonna be right. The film is gonna tank. Reviews are bad, movie is bad, only saving grace is SRK. However, for today’s audience, just that factor alone is not enough. Gone are those days when people watch a movie just for the actor, else Fan, Tubelight and now JHMS wouldn’t fail.

  6. Salman could not save a Bad film. Then how can ANUSHKA save a niche crap….
    Flop JHMS

  7. Bull’s eye!!! I agree

    But Bobby Siddhu I read an artilcle of yoyrs entitled “Fall of superstar rise of an actor